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Weather Team

Fire Weather Warning

Air Quality Report (As of 8:00AM)
All reporting stations are good to moderate.

High pressure will strengthen over the next few days, supporting a dome of unseasonably warm air across the region. Because of its position, flow will be northerly over our area. This offshore northerly flow will bring warmth to the coast, prevent the marine layer from developing, and push dry air over our ridgetops increasing fire danger. The offshore winds will die down by the end of the week and an area of low pressure will sneak north from the south, cooling us through the weekend. An increase in clouds is also likely.



… from the National Weather Service in Monterey:
Critical fire weather conditions are possible mid to late this week across the higher elevations of the north and east bay as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains. Some of these winds will possibly mix down into the east bay valleys. Winds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning, especially over the Diablo Range. Significantly stronger and gustier winds will develop and become more widespread in the hills Wednesday evening and peak overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, then diminish during the day Thursday. An uptick in wind speeds is likely again on Thursday night, but winds then are not expected to be as strong as those Wednesday night. In addition to gusty offshore winds, an extremely dry air mass will move in from the north and northeast. Afternoon relative humidity values beginning Wednesday are forecast to drop as low as the teens, with some single digit RH values possible. Little to no overnight recoveries are anticipated. Winds are anticipated to subside over all areas by Friday afternoon.

*RED FLAG WARNING*
… in effect until 11AM Friday for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County and the Santa Cruz Mountains.

WIND: North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 50 to 55mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning.

HUMIDITY: Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 8 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to the combination of dry fuels, strong and gusty north-northeasterly winds, and very low humidities.
 
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.


Wednesday: Dry northerly winds continue over the hills throughout the day and will strengthen in the evening. Skies across the region will remain clear and temperatures warm for this time of year. Expect highs in the 70s-80s on the coast and widespread 90s inland.

Overnight: Clear and mild overnight. Coastal lows in the mid-50s, mid-40s to low 50s for inland valleys, and 60s up in the hills. Winds will continue over the ridgetops.

Extended: Offshore winds will weaken starting Thursday, but the strength of the ridge will reach its maximum over the area Thursday & Friday—which is when we can expect the hottest temperatures for most cities. In fact, highs could be as much as 20ºF above normal for this time of year. A sub-tropical low will slowly drift in from the south through the weekend which will lead to a gradual cool-down through the weekend. However, it still looks pretty nice! Note: If any fires develop to our north, we’ll probably see some smoke in our area late in the week.

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This week's normal temperatures:

--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 70ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 80ºF

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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 21st – 27th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation. 
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory

-Area drought status: 
Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties, Abnormally dry on the east shore of the bay into San Benito County. No drought classification for much of Monterey County outside of the Gabilan Range.

Local Forecast / Weather / Weather Authority

Zach McIntyre

Zach McIntyre is the morning meteorologist at KION News Channel 5/46.

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