One More Nice, Warm Day
High pressure will continue to weaken which will allow for the weather pattern to become more progressive. Thursday will be the transition day with passing high clouds and deepening onshore flow. Temperatures will cool a bit from the early week highs but will remain seasonable to slightly warm for this time of year. By Friday, a cold front will make its approach from the west. Recent model runs are slowing it down a bit, but it looks like we’ll see light to moderate rain around the bay Friday evening. The coastal mountains may get some action just a bit earlier in the late afternoon. The front will pass by with a little bit of wind and open the door to an additional day or two of showers. We’ll have some instability on Saturday, so there is a slight chance for thunderstorms, though don't expect them to be widespread.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Thursday: Mostly sunny to start. Clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon. Leading to partly cloudy conditions into the evening. Slightly cooler with coastal highs in the 60s and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. Gusty up-valley winds late in the day.
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Patchy fog possible by morning. Lows will be slightly warmer with mainly mid 40s to low 50s at the coast, upper 30s to mid 40s inland.
Friday: Some drizzle/light rain possible in the coastal mountains starting in the afternoon. Widespread rain will then move from northwest to southeast across the area through the evening. Some rain-shadowed valleys may not see much precipitation. There is some potential for a narrow cold frontal rain band to develop which could lead to brief downpours and wind gusts mainly for coastal areas. Otherwise, winds could be gusty along and ahead of the front. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on the coast and mid 60s to low 70s inland.
Extended: We’ll see rounds of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm on Saturday along with gusty westerly winds. Temperatures drop mainly in the 50s to low 60s. Showers will probably linger into early Sunday, though increased afternoon sunshine may bump temps up a bit. The pattern will remain progressive through mid-week and there is some indication of a weak, trailing disturbance somewhere in the Monday/Tuesday time frame which could bring some light rain. A better chance will come mid-week with a better defined system.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 41ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 28th – April 3rd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
