Air Quality (as of 1:00PM)
GOOD to MODERATE for all reporting areas.
Active weather will continue with a big climax this weekend. The next system approaches late Saturday, but only light rains are likely near the coast late. This will all lead up to the strongest system which will take aim at the West Coast Sunday. This system will be accompanied by a robust atmospheric river of moisture which will mean heavy rain. The most likely timing in our area will be Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Gusty winds, heavy rain, minor flooding, and high surf can be expected. It is still several days out, so much can change in the meantime. Stay tuned to the forecast.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and slightly warmer with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Breezy for the valleys in the afternoon. Clouds thicken late with some light rain possible in the coastal hills.
Overnight: Increasing clouds and southerly winds. Occasional light rain possible mainly in the coastal hills. Lows in the 50s with a few 40s in the southern valleys.
Sunday: Increasing clouds and increasing southerly winds throughout the day. An atmospheric river of moisture will take aim at the coast and slowly wash from north to south across the region beginning in the afternoon Sunday and lasting into the overnight. Winds will peak late in the day and then slowly taper off overnight from north to south. Highs in the 60s. See the alert products below for details on the rain, wind, and high surf:
… from the National Weather Service in Monterey (text in italics):
Gusty south winds will arrive with a strong storm system as it impacts the area on Sunday. For lower elevations, breezy south winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, with gusts 30 of 45 mph possible throughout the region. For higher elevations, south winds of 20 to 35 mph are possible with gusts of 40 to 55 mph, locally in excess of 60 mph. These winds can result in downed trees, knock over unsecured objects, result in localized power outages, and make operating high profile vehicles difficult. Winds will taper off and turn towards the west in the wake of the front but remain locally breezy into early Monday.
... for Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties from 5AM Sunday until 8PM Sunday.
- Lower elevations: South Winds 15 to 25 mph, gusts 30 to 45 mph, locally stronger along the coast. Higher elevations: South Winds 20 to 35 mph, gusts 40 to 55 mph, locally in excess
of 60 mph at ridge level
… for Monterey & San Benito Counties from 11AM Sunday until 11PM Sunday
Lower elevations: South Winds 15 to 25 mph, gusts 30 to 45 mph, locally stronger along the coast. Higher elevations: South Winds 20 to 35 mph, gusts 40 to 55 mph, locally in excess
of 60 mph at ridge level
-Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
…for the near coastal waters of Monterey County from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas from 7AM Sunday until 3PM Sunday.
-South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 8 to 10 feet at 13 seconds
…for Monterey Bay from 9AM Sunday until 9PM Sunday
-south winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 11 feet at 13 seconds expected
… for the near coastal waters of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos from 9AM Sunday until 9PM Sunday
-South winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 13 feet at 13 seconds expected
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
*** *** ***
An atmospheric river will take aim at the North Bay with light rain developing Saturday Night. Steady rain on Sunday morning will become heavy as the frontal boundary passes through the North Bay and then reaches the Santa Cruz Mountains by Sunday afternoon and evening. The heavy rain band will then shift into the coastal hills of Monterey county Sunday night. Lingering showers on Monday.
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.
* National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting heavy rainfall over the CZU Lightning Complex burn area, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows.
* In addition to potential flash flooding over the 2020 CZU Lightning Complex there will be the threat of urban and small stream flooding throughout the region.
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.
* National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting heavy rainfall over the 2020 burn areas as well as the 2021 Willow Fire, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Local emergency services are monitoring the situation. PLAN NOW so you will know what to do in an emergency. Keep informed by listening to local radio and television for statements and possible warnings. Follow the advice of public safety officials.
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties from 11PM Sunday until 11AM Tuesday.
- Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet, greatly increased coastal run up, strong rip currents and longshore currents, and increased risk of coastal run up and minor coastal flooding in low lying areas.
- Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
- Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Extended: Rain and wind taper off overnight into Monday with only a few lingering showers by Monday afternoon. Tranquil weather expected through mid-week with a slow warm-up.
This week's normal temperatures:
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 30th – November 5th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
-Forecast into Winter: Weak La Niña
-Area drought status: “Extreme Drought” for the entire viewing area with the far southeastern corner of Monterey County and far eastern San Benito County considered “Exceptional Drought”