Rain Is Coming (A Lot Of It)
After a tranquil last few weeks, 2022 will end on the wet and stormy side! An atmospheric river will be directed at the West Coast in the coming days, setting its sights on the Central Coast Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rain is likely over a longer duration along with gusty winds in the morning. Then, several more systems will follow throughout the week… late Wednesday into Thursday, Friday, and then on Saturday. Storm totals are likely to be very impressive by the time we get to January 1st. Obviously there are a lot details to these individual storms that will be resolved in the coming days, so stay tuned to my forecast!
AIR QUALITY: Good
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles/light rain possible later in the day. The best chance for light rain will come after dark. Winds pick up late. Highs mainly in the 60s, remaining above normal despite the clouds.
**WIND ADVISORY**
… in effect from 10PM Monday until 7AM Tuesday for the Santa Cruz Mountains
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Local gusts up to 60 mph over the ridges and peaks.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… for all of Santa Cruz County and the Santa Cruz Mountains into Santa Clara County from late Monday night through Tuesday
… for the coast and coastal mountains of Monterey County from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A potent Pacific storm will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain causing localized flooding as well as rapid rises on area streams and creeks late Monday night through Tuesday.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties including Monterey bay from 3AM Tuesday until 9AM Tuesday.
South winds 15 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 10 to 12 ft expected. (Slightly less inside the bay)
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Tuesday: Gusty southerly winds in the morning with rain throughout the day for most areas. Rain could be heavy in the mountains and on the coast. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
… in effect from 9AM Tuesday to 9AM Wednesday for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties (A Beach Hazards Statement precedes the advisory)
*For the Beach Hazards Statement, surf height of 12 to 17 feet expected. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 20 to 25 expected.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large shorebreak. Farther than normal wave runup. Some beaches will be inundated at high tide. Rounding or climbing over rock outcroppings will be extremely dangerous. Fishing off rock walls or jetties may wash you out to sea.
*The ocean is an unrelenting environment with little to no chance of rescue. Respect this force of nature and remain well away from hazardous ocean conditions.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Extended: We’ll likely get a break in the rain for most of the day Wednesday, but it will be possible late as the next system arrives. Additional systems will follow on Friday and Saturday before possibly calming down on Sunday. All the while, expect seasonable to slightly cool high temperatures.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 2nd – 8th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña continues through winter, becomes neutral by Spring
-Area drought status: “Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”
