Weather Story: The strongest storm system of the season has arrived. The front stalled in southern Monterey County this morning, but a wave developing in the upper level system will push the stream of moisture back north across the Monterey Bay Area into the evening. Debris flows around burn scars will be a good possibility, so if you live on or near a scar, make sure you have a plan in place to stay safe and follow all evacuation orders. The front will finally eject southward on Thursday, but showers will continue to pile in behind it. Additional rainfall possible beyond Thursday as several, weaker systems take aim on the West Coast.
For Northwestern Monterey County through 5pm.
* At 459 AM PST, Emergency management reported possible flooding of
houses near the Carmel Lagoon and the Carmel River State Beach
parking lot. Due to heavy rain rapid rises are occurring on the
Carmel River. Water is backing up in the Carmel Lagoon near Carmel
River State Beach. Flooding is already occurring. Between 2 and 4
inches of rain have fallen.
Some locations that will experience flooding include... Areas near the Carmel River State Beach parking lot. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flooding is occurring along the Carmel River near the Carmel Lagoon.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
***Flood Advisory*** For Poor Drainage Areas for... Western Monterey County in central California... Northwestern San Benito County in central California... Central Santa Clara County in northern California... Southern Santa Cruz County in northern California until 10:30am.
* At 433 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
steady rain. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor
flooding in the advisory area.
The morning commute will be adversely impacted by wet roads and
debris. Allow yourself extra time to reach your destination.
Some locations that will experience flooding include...
San Jose, Salinas, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Mountain View,
Milpitas, Santa Cruz, Cupertino, Watsonville, Gilroy, Campbell,
Morgan Hill, Hollister, Seaside, Saratoga, Los Gatos, Los Altos,
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the coastal mountains of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties and the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County through 5pm Thursday.
* An atmospheric river will continue to produce moderate to heavy rain across Monterey County through Wednesday Night. Farther north, showers and possible thunderstorms will produce brief heavy rain Wednesday night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday.
* Moderate confidence that thresholds for debris flows will be met for the following 2020 burn scars: CZU Lightning Complex, SCU Lightning Complex, Carmel/River, and Dolan. For non-burn scar areas, there could be ponding of water in urban areas, and low lying areas with poor drainage. We also cannot rule out slides or wash outs in areas of steep terrain.
If you live near or on a burn scar: make sure you are signed up for your county's reverse 911 or other alert system and have a "go bag" ready. Monitor the weather for forecast updates and heed local official orders.
Overnight: Steady moderate rain for most of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Periods of rain elsewhere. Lows in the 40s. Gusty southerly winds at times.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers. Some showers will have brief heavy rain. Embedded thundershowers with small hail possible. Snow level 4,000ft. Highs in the 50s with 40s above 2,000ft in elevation. Gusty winds in the morning, becoming breezy in the afternoon.
Friday: Isolated showers in the morning with snow levels down to 3,000ft. Then, partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s.
Extended: A weak weather system will pass by on Saturday and may bring a few light showers to the region. We'll get a break on Sunday under partly cloudy skies. A stronger weather system will arrive Monday into Tuesday with widespread rain. At the moment, it doesn't look too heavy, however. Temperatures will slowly warm close to seasonal normals by Monday, but will remain cool for this time of year.
This week's normal temperatures:
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 4th – 10th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.