Tracking Major Storm Arrival
Expect heavy rain and strong damaging winds to arrive late tonight. The most intense winds and rain will be overnight, around 5 am, especially along the Big Sur coastline. Wind and flood alerts already in place. Wind gusts with this storm could be as high as 60 mph and even up to 80 mph in area mountain peaks and ridges. Downed trees and power outages are very possible. Rain will intensify as well overnight and those people living in low-lying, flood-prone areas should be alert and ready to ensure safety. Rainfall totals by Monday night will range from 2-5 inches with 6+ inches for the mts. High Surf expected as well with dangerous conditions at the beaches especially the Big Sur coastline from Point Pinos with large breaking waves 25-35 feet. Stay weather aware and up to date on the forecast. Avoid travel if you can.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***FLOOD WARNING***
*WHERE...Carmel River at Robles Del Rio in Monterey Co. for minor flooding and San Lorenzo River at Sand Lorenzo River at Big Trees in Santa Cruz Co. for moderate flooding
*WHEN...From Sunday morning until further notice
*IMPACTS...At 8.5 feet, low lying homes from Camp
Steffani to below Robles del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to flood. Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to flooding.
At 10.0 feet, South side of Highway 1 bridge access becomes inundated and impassible. Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area are in danger of flooding.
At 19.5 feet, moderate flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood.
*HIGH SURF ADVISORY*
...for Northern Bay, Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast
*WHEN...From 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday
*WHAT...Large breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet. Locally higher breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet near the Big Sur Coast south of Point Pinos.
Saturday night: the winds will ramp up and rain will turn heavy especially overnight. Be prepared for possible downed trees with power outages and flooding and have multiple ways to get alerts. Very hazardous seas expected with storm and gale warnings. Greatest concern for coastal communities and the higher elevations regarding the damaging winds. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph possible with gusts up to 60 mph and even as high as 80 mph at the highest peaks.
*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
...for the River Fire Burn area in the North Salinas Valley including the 800 block River Road, Pine Street and Berry Drive.
* WHAT...Flash flooding and debris flows caused by excessive
rainfall are possible over the River Fire burn area.
* WHERE...A portion of the Northern Salinas Valley including but not
limited to the 800 block of River Road, Pine Street, and Berry
Drive...Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley, Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest.
* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area is expected
up to and during the period of the watch. Residents near the River
Fire burn area should prepare for potential flooding impacts. Be
sure to stay up to date with information from local authorities.
Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding of low-lying areas,
urbanized street flooding, hyper-concentrated mudflows, and debris
flows in and near recent wildfire burn scars. Soils remain
saturated and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire KION coverage area of Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties in effect form Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
*Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may
reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Sunday: Strong winds and heavy rain are likely on Sunday, especially on the coast and in the coastal mountains. Some areas on the exposed coast may see strong damaging winds that could lead to downed trees and power outages. Flooding will also be possible in some areas. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
…for the entire KION coverage area in Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties with the exception of the Santa Clara Valley in effect from 10 PM
Saturday until 10PM Sunday.
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Santa Clara Valley in Santa Clara County in effect from 4AM Sunday until 10PM Sunday.
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
***MARINE ALERTS***
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with
gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 11 ft expected. For the Storm
Warning, southeast winds 30 to 50 kt with gusts up to 70 kt
and seas 20 to 25 ft expected.
* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras
Blancas California out to 10 nm.
* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 9 PM PST this evening. For
the Storm Warning, from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Sunday.
*Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditio
Extended: Rain will taper off on Monday and then we’ll see post frontal showers through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below average for this time of year as well.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 9th – 15th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
