Weather Transitions Tuesday
A pair of storm systems pays us a visit this week. The first, weak system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday with mainly light rain and the potential for some mountain snow. The second, stronger system will be a dynamic storm system complete with a strong atmospheric river. There is an increased chance for flooding on Thursday along with the threat of damaging winds and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Air Quality: Good
Tuesday: Increasing clouds throughout the day and a chance of light rain mainly after dark. Highs in the 50s. Northwesterly onshore winds becoming gusty in the afternoon.
Overnight: Widespread light (pockets of moderate) rain through midnight. Light to scattered showers toward dawn, mostly cloudy. Snow levels drop overnight, perhaps as low as 3,000ft. Warmer lows with mostly 40s at the coast, 30s and 40s inland. Breezy, gusty at times, but easing through the morning. Areas of patchy fog possible.
Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible, mainly in the coastal mountains. Warmer, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Breezy northeasterly winds at times, switching to the south and becoming windy late. Increasing clouds with a chance of rain late.
***GALE WARNING***
… in effect from 9PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday from Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California out to 10 NM and Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos California out to 10 NM.
*For the Gale Warning, south winds 15 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… in effect from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Benito Counties.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
Unsettled wet weather expected to resume tonight into Wednesday leading to an increased flooding potential as the next Atmospheric River moves in. This next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Area rivers, streams and creeks that are prone to rapid rises will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… in effect from 3PM Thursday to 3AM Saturday for coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties including the Monterey Bay.
*Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 ft and up to 45 ft for the highest waves on west facing beaches. Non-west facing beaches will see 15 to 20 ft waves and up to 30 ft peak waves.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Extended: Rainfall will become heavy and winds, gusty into Thursday morning as the atmospheric river deepens and the frontal system approaches the coast. The strongest winds are likely early in the afternoon on Thursday as the cold front passes. Rainfall will be heaviest then at well. However, the rain threat doesn’t end there. The low along with a trailing disturbance will move through late with widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Showers then linger into Friday before tapering off. Warmer, drier weather expected this weekend.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 39ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 18th - February 24th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for eastern San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County. Abnormally dry for the remainder of the viewing area.
Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 11th 54.4ºF (avg of 8 buoys)
