It’s Complicated, but in short… Cool, Gray, Gusty, and Moist
The forecast this week is complicated to say the least.
The short of it is that it will be cooler and there will be several chances for some light precipitation.
The long of it starts with the setup: a frontal system moved down the coast in to Sunday morning and stalled, basically disappearing flush with the coastline. High pressure moves to the east on Monday and a trough of low pressure will approach from the west. As it approaches, the frontal boundary will reactive and rush inland with the seabreeze Monday afternoon, pushing clouds and cooler, moist air inland. There may be enough lift to spawn a shower over the far inland mountains if there is enough instability. Deep southwesterly flow develops which will keep pushing cool, moist air into the coastal mountains. Eventually, it will moisten enough that drizzle will begin to fall—perhaps even bordering on light rain at times. A surface cyclone will also develop to our north along the stalled front as the trough approaches and then slowly push southward. This will help enhance the upslope flow into the coastal mountains into Tuesday and perhaps all the way into Wednesday morning. That drizzly, light rain could accumulate surpassing a tenth of an inch or more in the Santa Cruz Mountains, though most other areas will see scattered sprinkles at best. All the while, expect seasonable to slightly cool temperatures for this time of year. The trough will pass over us Wednesday into Thursday. Most models are dry with the transit, but I can’t rule out an isolated shower or two. For more on the trailing system that arrives on Friday that we’ve been talking about as well, see the extended forecast below.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Monday: Mostly cloudy near the coast and nearby valleys. Partly cloudy to mostly clear inland. Slight chance of a shower over the far inland/eastern mountains. Cooler with highs in the 60s on the coast and upper 60s to 70s inland. Southwesterly winds developing late in the day and becoming gusty at times. Drizzle possible for the coast and coastal mountains late in the day.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with widespread low clouds. Chance of drizzle near the coast and for coastal mountains. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s at the coast, mid to upper 40s inland. Breezy west-southwest winds, occasional gust.
Tuesday: Periods of a drizzly light rain in the coastal mountains, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Gusty southwesterly winds at times. Highs in the 60s on the coast and mainly 60s to around 70ºF inland.
Extended: Partly cloudy skies continue on Wednesday/Thursday as the low level flow slowly switches from southwest to northwest. There is a slight chance of a light shower or two. High pressure begins to build in Friday, but a system sneaking over the ridge will graze us on Friday. Models are trending dryer with it, but we still may see some showers Friday afternoon before the ridge pushes in harder from the west for the weekend.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 47ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 29th – May 5th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
