Active Weather, Showers and Storms, Monday
A strong Pacific Storm system will loom offshore for the next two days, throwing rounds of rain & wind at us. Its deep tropical moisture plume will increase the chance of flooding. Due to saturated soils, flood risk increases for small streams/creeks and low areas with impacts highest in the coastal mountains. The storm’s center will linger off the coast on Monday and into Tuesday, lobbing rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms our way. Heavy rain rates could cause rapid rises to small streams and flash flooding in burn areas. While widespread wind damage is not expected, isolated tree damage and power outages are likely. High surf will make beach conditions treacherous through early Tuesday!
AIR QUALITY: Good
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (not including Monterey Bay) and extended until 3PM Monday
*South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 15 to 20 ft expected.
…and for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas extended until 3PM Monday
*South winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 40kt and seas 14 to 19 ft expected
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
***GALE WARNING***
…for Monterey Bay in effect now until 3PM Monday
-South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 11 to 16 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
...for the entire Central Coast now until 4 AM Tuesday
*South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.
*Impacts...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects; tree limbs could be blown down and isolated power outages.
*The strongest winds will occur along the immediate coast and within higher terrain. Use extra caution when driving. Secure outdoor objects.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties extended until 4AM Tuesday.
*Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet along exposed, west-facing beaches. Locally higher waves up to 28 feet possible along some favored areas with steep beaches.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*These waves are caused by a combination of locally strong southerly winds and an incoming westerly swell from more intense storms located well offshore.
Beachgoers should never turn their back to the ocean during high surf. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
*FLOOD WATCH*…remains in effect for the entire KION coverage area of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties now through Wednesday morning.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas.
- Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will bring the potential for minor to moderate local flooding, as well as rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. Although most main stem river sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, minor flooding in urban areas and along smaller creeks and streams is expected.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
…for the River Fire Burn Area in effect now through Wednesday morning.
*Flash flooding and debris flows caused by excessive rainfall are possible over the River Fire burn area.
*Heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area is expected up to and during the period of the watch. Residents near the River Fire burn area should prepare for potential flooding impacts. Be
sure to stay up to date with information from local authorities. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding of low-lying areas, urbanized street flooding, and debris flows in and near recent wildfire burn scars.
- National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting the potential for heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with gusty southerly winds at times. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Enhanced risk of flooding. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Slight chance for strong thunderstorms.
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy with continued rounds of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly winds will begin to ease, but will remain gusty at times. Expect cooler lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s at the coast, with upper 30s to low 40s inland.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with gusty southerly winds at times. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Enhanced risk of flooding. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Slight chance for strong thunderstorms.
Extended: Showers taper off on Wednesday with cooler temperatures Wed/Thu even though by Thursday, skies will be mostly sunny. Temps head back upward into the weekend, though a weak system will be near us somewhere in the Sat/Sun time frame with light rain possible.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 26th – March 3rd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
