Main Storm Moves On, Scattered Showers and a Chance of T-storms Remain
An unsettled air mass will continue to push in off the Pacific for the next couple of days. Initially unstable, there will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms embedded within the showers on Thursday and shower chances will continue into Friday and perhaps even early Saturday. All the while, expect cool, breezy conditions.
AIR QUALITY: Good
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties extended until 3AM Friday
*Large breaking waves of 21 to 25 feet.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*West facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will impact beaches in the advisory area, producing rip currents, localized beach erosion, and sneaker waves.
Ensemble guidance shows a greater than 50 percent chance of reaching flood stage on numerous rivers and creeks across the North Bay and monitor stage on the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees and numerous other locations across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay Area by Thursday.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, cooler, breezy, with rounds of showers and the chance of an isoalted thunderstorm. Highs in the 50s.
Overnight: A slight chance of thunderstorms will continue through the evening, for the remainder of the night expect on-going scattered showers. Individual storms could produce brief heavy rain and strong gusts. Overall though winds will be light. Rounds of showers will continue into dawn. Lows will be cooler widespread 40s, 30s and 40s inland.
Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Cool & breezy with highs in the 50s.
Extended: A few showers may linger into early Saturday but then we’ll get a short break before the next system approaches. It could bring rain as early as late Saturday with the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday/Monday. This storm is getting more intense in the model runs, so concern is growing for flooding and wind damage. Please stay tuned to our forecast.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 8th – 14th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
