Transitional Day Before The Big Storm
Clouds will increase Tuesday as a storm system weakens and stalls offshore. A developing system will then push in from the west and draw in the lingering moisture from the first system, taking aim at the U.S. West Coast on Wednesday. We’re likely to see a strong frontal boundary paired with a deep moisture plume late Wednesday into Thursday which is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the region. There is flooding potential with this storm, especially for roadways and small streams. Finer details will have to be tuned in the coming days, but heavy rain is looking likely at this point.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Tuesday: A mix of high clouds with some low to mid-level cloud cover on the coast later in the day. Cooler, but near seasonable with highs in the 60s.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest greatest accumulation of precipitation will be observed across the North (San Francisco) Bay and along the coastal ranges. Rainfall totals remain consistent with 1.5 to 3 inches expected across most areas with 3-5 inches expected over the North Bay. Locally up to 6 to 8 inches over favored peaks and higher terrain of the North Bay and up to 4 to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may
reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
Ensemble guidance shows a greater than 50 percent chance of reaching flood stage on numerous rivers and creeks across the North Bay and monitor stage on the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees and numerous other locations across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay Area by Thursday.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with seasonable lows in the 40s and 50s at the coast, 40s inland. Winds will begin to pick up after midnight with occasional gusts. A slight chance of light showers before dawn.
***GALE WARNING***
… In effect from 3am to 9am Wednesday from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos and Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California.
*Southeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 12 ft.
expected.
* Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range/Los Padres National Forest from 4AM Wednesday until 4AM Thursday
*South winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
*Wind gusts around 55 mph are possible along ridge tops and locally above 60 mph on the highest peaks.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for coastal Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties, San Benito County, Santa Clara County (outside of the Santa Cruz Mountains which are under a warning) and the valleys and inland mountains of Monterey County from 4AM Wednesday until 4AM Thursday.
*South winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Wednesday: A chance of showers early, then rain developing later in the day and becoming heavy at times in the evening, especially on the coast. Southerly winds also strengthen throughout the day and will be quite gusty late in the day. Highs in the low 60s.
***STORM WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9AM Wednesday until 9PM Wednesday.
Southeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 9 to 13 ft expected.
*Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Extended: Heavy rain continues into Thursday morning. Small stream and street flooding looking possible. Rounds of showers will then continue on Thursday with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Cool, breezy, showers conditions can then be expected on Friday and while we’ll likely get a break on Saturday, there is still a slight chance for showers. By Sunday, the next weather system approaches from the west-southwest and could potentially produce another round of heavy rain.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 6th – 12th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
