Another Beautiful Day for the Central Coast
Expect another unseasonably warm day on Monday! The overall air mass cools about 5ºF, but highs will remain roughly 10ºF above normal for this time of year with widespread upper 60s and 70s. Enjoy the warmth, because much cooler weather will then be on the way. Clouds will increase Tuesday as a storm system weakens and stalls offshore. A developing system will then push in from the west and draw in the lingering moisture from the first system, taking aim at the U.S. West Coast on Wednesday. We’re likely to see a strong frontal boundary paired with a deep moisture plume late Wednesday into Thursday which is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the region. There is flooding potential with this storm, especially for roadways and small streams. Finer details will have to be tuned in the coming days, but heavy rain is looking likely at this point.
Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics below. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
AIR QUALITY: Good
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm, but not as warm as Sunday. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight: High clouds will be on the increase, making for partly cloudy conditions. Lows will be cooler with mid-40s to low 50s at the coast, 40s and a few 30s inland. Light southerly winds.
Tuesday: A mix of high clouds with some low to mid-level cloud cover on the coast later in the day. Cooler, with highs in the 60s.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.
Model guidance continues to suggests greatest accumulation of precipitation will be observed across the North (San Francisco) Bay and along the coastal ranges. Rainfall totals remain consistent with 1.5 to 3 inches expected across most areas with 3-5 inches expected over the North Bay. Locally up to 6 to 8 inches over favored peaks and higher terrain of the the North Bay and up to 4 to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may
reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
Ensemble guidance shows a greater than 50 percent chance of reaching flood stage on numerous rivers and creeks across the North Bay and monitor stage on the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees and numerous other locations across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay Area by Thursday.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Wednesday: A chance of showers early, then rain developing later in the day and becoming heavy at times in the evening, especially on the coast. Southerly winds also strengthen throughout the day and will be quite gusty late in the day. Highs in the low 60s.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for coastal areas and higher terrain of Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito Counties, along with the Santa Cruz Mountains of Santa Clara County in effect from 7AM Wednesday until 4AM Thursday.
*South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible along ridge tops and the highest elevations. Specifically for the Santa Lucia Mountains, highest gusts could reach 60 mph. In lower elevations along the immediate coast, gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Take care to secure loose outdoor items that can easily be blown over such as furniture and decorations.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Extended: Heavy rain continues into Thursday morning. Small stream and street flooding looking possible. Rounds of showers will then continue on Thursday and taper off on Friday. Expect much cooler air with highs in the 50s Thursday into the weekend. Another system is then likely in the Sunday/Monday timeframe.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 5th – 11th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
