Scattered Showers Continue Tuesday, Heavy Rain and Strong Winds Wednesday
Shower activity will die down a bit on Tuesday as we’ll be in a bit of a lull between systems, but that southwest flow will keep a few showers in the forecast. With that said, if we get some sunshine, there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm, especially over the inland mountains.
The next system, packed with cold air from the north will arrive early Wednesday morning, using the moist air mass as fuel and creating heavier rainfall into Wednesday. Most of us will get a longer duration rain event with moderate to briefly heavy rain possible which will then taper off into Wednesday afternoon. Minor flooding is possible during this time, espcally in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Areas with mountains to the south may experience rain shadowing. This system will have gusty winds Wednesday morning as well, but it is not looking extreme. With that said there could still be some localized power outages.
Rainfall forecast through Thursday morning (starting midnight Monday)
Coastal Mountains: 3-6”
Santa Cruz-Watsonville area: 1-2.5”
Peninsula to Salinas: 0.75-1.5”
Northern Valleys: 1-3”
Southern Valleys: 0.75-2”
AIR QUALITY: GOOD
Tuesday: A more concentrated round of showers in the morning, becoming more isolated in the afternoon. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Gusty southerly winds at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy conditions with mild lows in the 50s across the region. Few upper 40s on the ridgetops. After midnight, light to moderate showers will start to move into the area, mainly north in Santa Cruz County, eventually becoming more widespread. Rain will become moderate to heavy. Winds will also pick up throughout the morning. Gusty southerly winds around 25-30mph. There's a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
Wednesday: Periods of moderate to heavy rain early, then becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers—more numerous in the south. Slightly cooler with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Gusty southerly winds at times.
Extended: The storm will be to our south on Thursday, but may throw up some additional rounds of rain our way. We’ll warm a touch on Friday before a dry cold front with cooler northwesterly winds brings highs back down to normal or slightly below into the holiday weekend. Winds ease but become more northerly this weekend, ushering in dry air which will result in seasonable highs and lows—which are usually pretty chilly this time of year!
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 59ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 26th – January 1st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
