A Gusty Local Summer for Early Fall
“Local summer,” will continue for another day or two, but it won’t last much longer. Northwesterly surface flow picks up a bit on Wednesday with gusty winds expected especially for exposed coastal areas. Stronger winds off the water will cool the Monterey Peninsula from Tuesday’s highs, but downsloping winds off the Santa Cruz Mountains will keep the north side of the bay nice and warm. The overall temperatures of the air mass above us doesn’t change much day to day, so most inland areas will experience another seasonably warm day on Wednesday. Slightly cooler air will then slowly move in with the northwesterly flow which will be more noticeable by Friday as a strong trough begins to dig down the West Coast. Latest projections allow for that low to tap into some moisture, so by the time it reaches our area, there is potential for rain—probably showers and maybe a thundershower—to develop. Highs will likely fall to the 60s for both the coast and inland areas. With that said, offshore flow behind the low will likely warm us back up into next week. Pull the bar down and lock it in—we’ll be in for a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the next week.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***GALE WARNING***
…for Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California out to 10 nm. In effect from 9PM Tuesday to 3AM Friday.
*Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
*Beach Hazards*
… for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties in effect until 5PM Wednesday.
This statement replaces the High Surf Advisory that expired at 11PM Tuesday.
*Large breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion.
*Northwest swell is starting to diminish but large breaking waves are still possible through Wednesday afternoon.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Expect coastal highs in the mid-60s to low 80s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and upper 70s to upper 80s inland. Gusty northwesterly winds at times. Low clouds increase on the south/east sides of the bay late.
Overnight: Patchy low clouds will develop by late evening, around the south side of the bay. Becoming a bit thicker overnight pushing slightly inland, though not expecting widespread cloud cover. Most other locations will be under mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the 50s, with 40s in the valleys. There is some indication of drizzle for the southern/eastern portions of Monterey Bay on Thursday morning.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy early, becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon around the coast, while inland areas will once again see plenty of sunshine. Slightly cooler with coastal highs in the low 60s to upper 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and mid 70s to upper 80s inland. Gusty northwesterly winds at times.
Extended: Temperatures begin to cool on Friday and will bottom out in the 60s on Saturday with a chance for showers. Then, expect warming into next week under mostly sunny skies.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 70ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 83ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 3rd – 9th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
