Weak Cold Front Brings Rain this Morning, Impactful Storm on the Way
Here’s a look at your forecast for Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and southern Santa Clara Counties!
A cold upper-level low to our north brought more rounds of showers this morning. Most of the activity will disappear by lunchtime. The pattern will then shift for the end of the week as a plume of warmer, moist air is directed at the California Coast. A storm system to our north will tap into this moisture which will likely mean moderate to heavy rain for our area late Thursday into Friday. We’ll remain in the warmer, moist air mass through the weekend with additional heavy rain chances coming over the next week or two. There will be an increased risk of flooding, so please stay tuned to the forecast.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Wednesday: A few isolated showers in the south, then decreasing clouds across the area. Cool & breezy with highs in the 50s.
Overnight: Increasing clouds with slightly warmer lows, mainly in the upper 30s to mid. 40s. Winds light becoming breezy heading into sunrise.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with light rain beginning in the morning. Rain becomes heavy for the coastal mountains by the afternoon. Southerly winds increasing, beginning to usher in warmer air. Highs in the 50s to around 60ºF.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the entire coast from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas, including the Monterey Bay. In effect from Thursday 9am to Friday 9am.
*Southeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt.
*Monterey Bay – south winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the entire KION viewing area, including Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito Counties. In effect from 1pm Thursday to 4pm Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… for the entire KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties in effect from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning.
A strong winter storm will impact the region Thursday into Friday with showers lingering into Saturday. This system is tapping into very moist subtropical moisture which will allow for moderate to periods of heavy precipitation. Latest model guidance suggests the coastal slopes of the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Mountains will receive the greatest accumulation of precipitation.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams will see rapid rises. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
*Rainfall totals will range from 1.5 to 4 inches. Locally up to 6-8 inches over favored peaks and higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Mountains where prolonged moderate to heavy precipitation and higher rain rates are currently forecast. Pre-existing saturated soils will not be able to absorb
excess rainfall. Urban and small stream flooding is expected along with a 25% exceedance probability that some main stem rivers may rise above flood stage.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Extended: Heavy rain continues in the coastal mountains into Friday with moderate rains elsewhere. Gusty southerly winds continue and temperatures rise into the 60s for most areas! Rain tapers off late Friday, but additional rounds will be possible into Saturday and maybe even Sunday. Highs return to normal (if not above) and lows will finally be back above normal. Another wet & heavy storm possible early next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 41ºF
HIGH: 67ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 15th – 21st calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Transition to neutral with possible El Niño developing this summer
-Area drought status: Moderate Drought (D1) for the northern Santa Cruz Mountains, San Benito County, southeastern Monterey County and southern Santa Clara County Abnormally dry (D0) for the rest of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties.
