Surf Then Sun Then Rain Chances
High pressure strengthens and dominates on Wednesday, sending temperatures well above normal. Highs will approach record territory (most climate sites are in the low to mid 80s for the date). The ridge will be fast-moving however, pushing to the east and opening the door for more active weather starting Thursday.
Air Quality: Good to Moderate
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
… Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast, in effect until 4AM Wednesday. This advisory replaced the previous Beach Hazards Statement for this area.
*Large NW swell will result in breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet along North and West facing beaches.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off their feet and quickly pull them into the cold ocean waters, where currents will be stronger than normal. These waves can also carry driftwood logs and other debris.
*Remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Never turn your back on the ocean!
*Beach Hazards Statement*
… for Northern Monterey Bay, in effect until 4AM Wednesday.
*A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves up to 15 feet along favored break points.
*Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off their feet and quickly pull them into the cold ocean waters, where currents will be stronger than normal. These waves can also carry driftwood logs and other debris.
*Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Overnight: Clear and cooler with lows in the low to mid-40s on the coast with low 30s to low 40s inland. Patchy fog possible in low, damp areas.
Wednesday: Light offshore winds and full sunshine. Warmer with highs in the 70s to around 80ºF. A light sea breeze kicks in for the afternoon, especially on the south/east sides of the bay.
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance for light showers late. Cooler but still mild with highs in the 60s-70s. Breezy onshore winds developing in the afternoon, then becoming windy up valleys late.
Extended: A cut off area of low pressure will make landfall somewhere in central or southern California on Friday with a few showers possible. The closer to us, the better the chance, but if it moves too far south, we won’t see much of anything. If it’s directly overhead, there could be enough instability for a brief thundershower. We’ll then get somewhat of a break on Saturday in between systems, depending on the timing of both. The second, stronger system will have colder air aloft, more upper level support, and better moisture. It will likely get here Sunday into Monday with rain looking more and more likely. There is also a thunderstorm threat if the low moves directly over us on Monday. The pattern looks to remain active next week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 5th – 11th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for eastern San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County. Abnormally dry for the remainder of the viewing area.
Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 26th 54.9ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
[February Avg. SST: 54.9ºF]
