Late February Roller Coaster

Temperatures warm back up with plentiful sunshine through mid-week. Building high pressure will get the winds stirred up a bit on Tuesday, but will dominate our area on Wednesday with highs some 10-15ºF above normal. Enjoy it while it lasts as cooler, more unsettled weather arrives late in the week.

Air Quality: Good

*Beach Hazards Statement*
… for north & west-facing beaches of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties in effect until late Tuesday evening.

*A long period westerly swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 15 to 18 feet along west and northwest facing beaches.

*Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off their feet and quickly pull them into the cold ocean waters, where currents will be stronger than normal. These waves can also carry driftwood logs and other debris.

*Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

Overnight: High clouds slowly thin out, but low clouds will remain on the coast and in the valleys. Patchy fog & drizzle possible. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s on the coast and low 40s to upper 40s for most inland valleys. Breezy northerly winds over the hills.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny with only a few high clouds passing through and perhaps a flat cumulus cloud or two over the ridgetops. Warmer, with coastal highs in the 60s and upper 60s to mid-70s inland. Gusty north-northwesterly winds on the exposed coast then breezy over the hills and in the inland valleys.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer yet with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lighter winds.

Extended: The weather pattern becomes more complicated for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A pair of weather systems will move through. The first, a cut off low, will roll into the region Thursday into Friday. Depending on where it comes ashore, we could see some showers locally—perhaps as intense as a few thunderstorms—however, low placement may lead to no precipitation whatsoever! The second system will arrive during the weekend. A trough at first, most models are also cutting it off as a low by Sunday and moving it through the area into Monday. Showers will be possible along with another thunderstorm threat. Lots of movement can be expected in the forecast over the coming days due to the natural variability of these systems.

*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 62ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 4^th – 10^th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for eastern San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County. Abnormally dry for the remainder of the viewing area.
 Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 25^th 55.2ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
[February Avg. SST: 54.9ºF]