Atmospheric River Reprise

A relatively weak atmospheric river will flow across the Central Coast Monday and Tuesday. Two distinct disturbances will help generate rain out of the AR, one early Monday and another early Tuesday. The moisture plume will be focused more south of Monterey Bay and thus the Santa Lucia Range will see the highest rainfall totals, perhaps exceeding 5” in some areas over the two day period. Areas around the bay will generally receive less than an inch—probably less than a half inch for most areas. The Monday disturbance will also feature a frontal boundary which will stir the winds up. They could get quite gusty along the Monterey Coast into late afternoon. There are no alerts in place, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 50mph gusts along the Big Sur Coast ridgelines.

AIR QUALITY: Good

Overnight: Widespread clouds with on and off light rain for most areas, moderate rain developing in the Santa Lucia Range. Lows in the 40s to low 50s. Breezy southerly winds on the exposed coast and in the hills.

Monday: Widespread light rain under overcast skies for most of the day with moderate rain in the coastal mountains—especially the Santa Lucias. Rain lessening after dark but light chance continue through the overnight. Gusty southerly winds peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. Wind gusts will be greatest over the higher terrain and on the exposed Monterey County Coast. Highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday: Rain picks up again into Tuesday with the focus being more south of Monterey Bay and especially the Santa Lucia Range. Areas around and north of the bay will continue to see on and off rain as well, but it will generally be light. Cooler, with highs in the 50s for most areas. Rain begins to taper off late.

Extended: A few showers may linger into Wednesday, but it should be a dry day for most areas. Temperatures return to normal. The dry trend continues into Thanksgiving, though at least one model continues to show another plume of moisture arriving late Thursday into Friday. That model is an outlier, but bears watching. Otherwise, expect slightly warmer temperatures into the weekend.

*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 62ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 2^nd – 8^th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 25^th : 54.9ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]