Break Before The Next Round
The weather pattern will remain active into next week, though most of us will get a break on Sunday. There is a *slight* chance of rain and actually from several possible sources. The atmosphere remains slightly unstable, so an isolated shower can’t be ruled out, especially over the southern mountains early. Then, the remnant circulation from the “bomb cyclone” last week has actually made a full orbit around the overall trough and will approach the Northern California Coast Sunday afternoon. At least one convective model is showing a line of associated showers clipping us (in the north) mid to late afternoon. Then, and are you ready for this, perhaps more importantly, a wave traveling in the jet stream along the base of the big trough will develop and draw in moisture from the—you guessed it—atmospheric river that has already passed to the south. The AR will be redirected back to the north and reach us in two separate doses: first early on Monday and second mid-day Tuesday, though in a diminished state. The focus this time will be more so over our southern mountains. The river will be far weaker than it was when it was flooding out Northern California, so that’s some good news. For example, most areas will see less rain during the two-day period than they saw in the 6-8 hour period on Friday night. The exception will be the Santa Lucias and southern Monterey County.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Sunday: Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with an isolated shower possible. Cool with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas. Then, clouds increase late in the day with a chance of light rain moving in before midnight. Breezy southerly winds late in the day.
Overnight: Widespread clouds with occasional light rain for most areas, moderate rain developing in the Santa Lucia Range. Lows in the 40s to low 50s. Breezy southerly winds on the exposed coast and in the hills.
Monday: Widespread light rain under overcast skies for most of the day with moderate rain in the coastal mountains—possibly heavy at times in the Santa Lucias. Rain lessening after dark. Gusty southerly winds peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. Wind gusts will be greatest over the higher terrain and on the exposed coast. Highs in the 50s to low 60s.
Extended: Expect mostly cloudy skies and light to moderate rain on Tuesday as a weak atmospheric river remains pointed at the Central Coast. It will continue to weaken and rain will eventually cease some time late Tuesday into Wednesday as a low offshore draws it away from us. That low will sit offshore for Thursday, hopefully far enough that we will remain dry. Eventually, most models are kicking it back to the west on Friday/Saturday which would likely bring more rain chances to our area.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 1st - 7th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 24th : 54.7ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
