First Real Storm Of The Season
A significant storm system will continue to pummel the West Coast to our north through tomorrow. We’ll remain on the very edge of it, picking up some occasional rain in the north along with strong southerly flow. The system will finally move through our area on Friday, bringing wind & rain.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***GALE WARNING***
..for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect until 9PM Wednesday
Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 13 ft expected.
..and for the near coastal water from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect through 3AM Friday
Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 knots and seas of 7-12ft.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
..for the North Coast of Santa Cruz County in effect until 6AM Thursday
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
**HIGH SURF ADVIOSRY**
...for southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast in effect until 6 AM Friday
*Large Breaking waves between 14-19 feet wave along southwest facing beaches and up to 22 ft along well exposed west-facing beaches.
Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
*Beach Hazards Statement*
…for the immediate coast along the north side of Monterey Bay.
A moderate period northwest swell will result in a more energetic surf zone resulting in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 10 to 13 ft are expected with some potential for breaking waves up to 15 ft to develop
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with slight chance of rain in the north. Lows in the low 40s to low 50s. Breezy southerly winds at times.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a few showers possible in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Gusty southerly winds at times. Highs warmer in the mid to upper 60s to low 70s in far inland spots.
Extended: By Friday/Saturday, the weakened AR will likely finally move through the Monterey Bay Area along with a cold front. Widespread rain is expected during the period, but at the moment it doesn’t look all that heavy. Still, this is likely to be the wettest system of the season so far. Some indications show the “storm door” remaining open behind this system which could lead to additional rainfall through the weekend. Lots of things could change—intensity, timing, etc, so please stay tuned to my forecast!
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 28th – December 4th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 19th : 53.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
