Rain Tapers Off
Drizzly light rain comes to an end Monday morning as a cold front moves out of the region. In its wake, a cold, blustery air mass will push in. There will still be a bit of instability through late morning, so it’s possible a stray shower or two may develop in the post-frontal environment. Any remaining rainfall will be isolated and brief at best. The air will slowly dry out for the rest of the day along with gusty north-northwesterly winds. Winds will ease by Tuesday morning with a cold air mass settling in. Patchy frost will be possible approaching the coast with higher valleys—especially in the south—experiencing another freeze. Temps will warm through mid-week as a massive storm develops in the North Pacific. More on our local impacts in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
Overnight: Decreasing clouds and light, drizzly rain slowly tapering off. Patchy fog. Cool and occasionally breezy with lows in the low to mid 40s on the coast and mid-30s to low 40s inland.
Monday: Mostly sunny with an isolated shower possible before mid-day. Gusty north-northwesterly winds peak mid-afternoon with gusts approaching 45mph for inland valleys. Chilly, with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s.
***FREEZE WARNING***
…for interior areas of Monterey County and San Benito County in effect from 12AM Tuesday until 8AM Tuesday.
*freezing temperatures as low as 26 expected.
*Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Cold conditions will be hazardous to sensitive populations such as unhoused individuals. Cold Conditions can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Be sure to open sink cabinet doors and/or drip faucets. This may help reduce or prevent damage to uninsulated pipes and other plumbing.
**FROST ADVISORY**
…for coastal Santa Cruz County in effect from 12AM Tuesday until 8AM Tuesday
*Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
*Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Cold conditions will be hazardous to sensitive populations such as unhoused individuals.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Be sure to cover or tend to sensitive plants and vegetation as they may be damaged by frost.
Tuesday: Mostly clear and cold in the morning with patchy frost for coastal cities and widespread frost to freezing conditions for inland valleys. High clouds increase and become thick at times during the day. Highs remain cool, in the mid-50s to low 60s. Light winds.
Extended: By mid-week, a strong storm system with an atmospheric river will be impacting the Pacific Northwest all the way down into northern California. It appears now that by late Wednesday, we may catch the southern edge of the AR, bringing rain to the northern portions of our viewing area. Since we’ll be on the front side of it, we’ll have warm and gusty southerly flow, sending highs back above normal. A strengthening ridge to the south will likely push the AR back north for Thursday, though we may still have to watch for rain in the north. By Friday/Saturday, the weakened AR will likely finally move through the Monterey Bay Area along with a cold front. Widespread rain is expected during the period, but at the moment it doesn’t look all that heavy. Still, this is likely to be the wettest system of the season so far. Some indications show the “storm door” remaining open behind this system which could lead to additional rainfall through the weekend. Lots of things could change—intensity, timing, etc, so please stay tuned to my forecast!
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 25th – December 1st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 19th : 54.1ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
