Very Dry For Now

Critical fire conditions expected Wednesday with dry winds over the hills and downsloping into some valley/coastal locations. Otherwise, expect seasonably warm and pleasant conditions.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

***RED FLAG WARNING***
Strong and gusty offshore winds, critical relative humidity, and dry fuels continue across much of the region. North to northeasterly wind gusts will average between 25 and 40 mph, particularly across the higher terrain of the Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay Hills, North Bay Mountains, as well as interior portions of Napa and Sonoma counties. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph with occasional gusts greater than 55 mph will continue across the North Bay interior mountains through Wednesday evening. Afternoon humidity values will range between the single digits and 25 percent. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor between 20 and 45 percent. Fire crews and residents are urged to remain abreast of the weather forecast through Thursday morning.

RED FLAG WARNING for Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County until 7AM PST Thursday

* WINDS...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent wetting rain, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will dry fuels out very quickly.

Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Expect lows in the mid-40s to low 50s on the coast and mid-30s to mid-40s for inland valleys. Gusty northerly winds, especially over the higher terrain

Wednesday: Gusty winds over the mountains and on the exposed coast into the morning. Mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Highs in the 60s-70s for most areas. Dry, northerly winds will remain gusty at times throughout the day, especially in the higher terrain.

Thursday: Sunny and dry. Seasonable with highs in the 60s-70s. Occasionally breezy. Fire danger remains elevated.

Extended: Highs will remain seasonable through Friday, then begin to cool into the weekend as onshore flow redevelops. Clouds will increase through the weekend as a system passes by. A second system is more likely to bring rain on or around Monday/Veterans Day.

*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 47ºF
HIGH: 68ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 72ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 14^th – 20^th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 6^th : 55.5ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]