Fire Weather
Expect seasonable weather this week with plenty of sunshine, though dry, offshore winds will make for higher fire danger at times! We’ll remain sandwiched in between a big ridge of high pressure out over the Pacific and general troughing over the Intermountain West. The ridge will bulge our way today with warming temps and a moderate sea breeze, but a shortwave riding down the back side of the trough will kick winds back offshore Tuesday into Wednesday, and looking at 20-30 mph winds gusting up to 50 mph in many locations. Strong gusty winds expected through Wednesday night with a Red Flag Warning already issued.
AIR QUALITY: Good
*Beach Hazards Statement*
… for north and west-facing beaches of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties until 7PM Monday
*Long period northwest swell will result in an energetic surf zone resulting in an increasing risk of sneaker waves and increasing rip currents, then transitioning to a larger surf with strong rip currents, long beach run-up and large shore break on steeper beaches. Breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet are expected.
*Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Rest of Today: Sunny with temperatures in the 60s-70s. Breezy in the valleys.
Overnight: Mostly clear with temps mainly in the low to upper 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a few passing high clouds. Slightly cooler, with coastal highs in the low 60s to low 70s and 70s mainly inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore winds becoming windy in the valleys late. Then, dry, northerly winds over the hills late.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County, and the hills & mountains of Monterey & San Benito Counties in effect from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM PST Thursday
Strong north to northeast winds are being observed across the region as a deep trough moves over the Rockies. These dry offshore winds are causing the dew point and relative humidity to quickly drop. Despite the recent rain, regional RAWS stations are reporting 10- hour fuel moistures have dropped back into the single digits and continuing to dry. By Tuesday night, encroaching high pressure from the Eastern Pacific will tighten the gradient and strengthen the winds. Gusts are expected to reach up to 50 mph across the higher elevations with RH recoveries in the 30-45% range Tuesday night. Winds will gradually decrease through the day Wednesday, but with the RH dropping into the high teens, fire weather conditions will remain critical through Wednesday night.
* WINDS...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.
* LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent wetting rain, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will dry fuels out very quickly.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Extended: Offshore winds peak overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing fire danger. Winds will ease for the rest of the week with cool mornings and warm afternoons for most areas. Clouds increase this weekend as a series of systems approach. We could be looking at rain returning on or around the 11th.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 47ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 72ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 12th – 18th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 4th : 54.9ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
