Offshore Again
Dry northerly winds will flow over the mountains into Thursday, keeping fire danger elevated. The winds are picking up in response to a system passing by to our north. Meanwhile, the ridge to our south with strengthen and continue to block storm systems well to our north into the weekend. It will also keep a warm, dry air mass in place! The ridge will also pump up some tropical moisture on Sunday from Hurricane Kristy in the East Pacific. It will likely just be high cloud cover, but could also act as some fuel for an approaching trough. See more in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good to moderate for most areas, perhaps further diminished in the San Lorenzo Valley due to smoke from a controlled burn in San Mateo County
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Occasionally breezy northerly winds. Expect coastal lows in the mid-40s to low 50s with upper 30s to upper 40s for inland valleys and 50s up in the hills.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Slightly cooler warm for this time of year with coastal highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and inland highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s. Breezy northwesterly onshore flow and up valleys late in the day.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Slightly warmer on the coast with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s and upper 70s to mid-80s for inland areas. Breezy up valleys late in the day.
Extended: Temperatures peak on Saturday with most areas 4-8ºF above normal. High clouds will increase as tropical moisture streams in from the south. Right now timing suggests that most of that moisture will clear out by the time the next system arrive late in the day. That system, a deep trough digging in from the north, will be packed with cold area and come in with a bluster. In fact, northwest winds may be gusty starting Sunday and lasting into mid-week as the storm track becomes more active. I did add a chance of light showers into the forecast late Sunday into Monday with an additional chance late in the week. The weather next week will be much different than this one!
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 70ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 76ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 31st – November 6th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of October 24th: 56.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
