Waves, Wind & Fire
We’ll enter the work week with relatively quiet weather. High pressure to the south will gently nudge in, pressing down on and ultimately stabilizing the marine layer. While temperatures aloft will warm slightly, some coastal areas will be cooler day to day due to thicker clouds—notably on the south/east sides of the bay. By mid-week, a weather system will pass by giving us a very slight chance of rain.
AIR QUALITY: Good
*Beach Hazards*
…for the immediate coast of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties through Wednesday evening.
*A moderate period northwest swell will result in a more energetic surf zone. Breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet are expected.
*Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches.
Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing near the water. Know where your lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Monday: Becoming partly cloudy on the coast with clouds favoring the south half of the bay and mostly sunny inland. Expect coastal highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and mid-70s to mid-80s inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore flow becoming windy in the valleys late in the day.
Tuesday: Low clouds early, then becoming mostly sunny. Slightly warmer with coastal highs in the mid-60s to upper-70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and upper 70s to upper 80s inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore flow becoming windy in the valleys late in the day.
Extended: A weather system will pass by on Wednesday with a very slight chance for light rain. It may just end up being some drizzle, but we’re monitoring. Winds shift offshore behind the system as a deep trough then digs down into the Great Basin. Initially cool and blustery, the offshore flow will slowly warm toward the end of the week. Mornings lows will be below normal on Friday into the weekend. The dry, offshore flow will also increase fire danger for the region.
**FIRE WEATHER WATCH**
…for inland areas but also including the coastal mountains of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties in effect from 11AM Thursday through 8PM Saturday.
Gusty north-northeast winds are expected to develop as a potential "inside slider" system moves into the Great Basin this weekend. Humidities will still be on the higher end at the start of the event on Thursday, but are expected to quickly dry out becoming critically dry Friday and Saturday, as low as 15%. However, impacts are expected as soon as Thursday afternoon with winds increasing across the region. Most areas will be affected to some degree, with likely exceptions being the immediate Big Sur coast and Monterey Bay. Winds largely on the order of 20-30 mph can be expected with gusts to 40 mph...Isolated gusts to 50 mph across the highest terrain and ridgetops.
* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, and gusts up to 50 mph across ridgetops.
*RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent during the day and less than 40 percent overnight.
* LIGHTNING...None.
*IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite relative humidity being on the higher end of critical fire weather criteria, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will likely dry fuels out very quickly given their volatility over the past several weeks.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 22nd – 28th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of October 13th : 59.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
