Monitoring Holiday Heat

Weak troughing will continue over the West Coast for the next couple of days with seasonable to slightly cool temperatures expected. The monsoonal high to our southeast will nudge in a bit this weekend and temperatures will warm slightly. Then, just as it begins to ease, the subtropical high out over the Pacific will strengthen and slowly approach from the west. This will keep the warming trend going and going and going… see more in the Extended Forecast below.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

Overnight: Low clouds slowly fill back in around the bay from the south, swirling counter-clockwise to the north with some low cloudcover/fog inching into nearby valleys. Otherwise, expect clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s on the coast and mid 40s to low 50s for inland valleys.

Friday: Becoming partly cloudy on the coast with a few low clouds lingering on the south half of the bay and sunny inland. Expect coastal highs in the upper 50s to around 70ºF—warmest on the north side of the bay—and upper 60s to low 90s inland. Breezy westerly onshore winds, becoming windy in the valleys late in the day.

Saturday: Low clouds for the coast & nearby valleys in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny on the coast and sunny inland. Expect coastal highs in the low 60s to mid 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and mid 70s to mid 90s inland. Breezy westerly onshore winds, becoming windy in the valleys late in the day.

Extended: We’ll slowly warm through the weekend with morning low clouds on the coast but mostly sunny skies during the afternoons. As the big ridge moves in from the west next week, hot temperatures are looking more and more likely inland. Widespread 90s and 100s are possible from Tuesday on—highs potentially getting up to 110ºF in the typical hot spots. The coast may be a bit more difficult to predict. It will definitely be warmer for coastal cities, but weak onshore flow may keep cooler temps and fog right along the coast. Still, with the ridge to our west, it can sometimes favor a more northerly offshore flow which could result in significant heating toward the coast. Some of the finer details are yet to be ironed out, so stay tuned to the forecast. Either way, hot and dry conditions are expected for the Fourth of July, making fire danger high!

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 68ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 83ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 5^th – 11^th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.
*Note: little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña by late summer.
- Area drought status: Currently drought-free
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of June 26^th: 55.1ºF
(Historic June AVG: 56.7ºF) -- *average of three buoys