Tropical Lightning Threat

Tropical moisture—the distant remnants from tropical cyclone Alberto--will stream into the region for the next couple of days. This mid-level moisture will be relatively shallow in depth, but may be just deep enough for showers & thunderstorms to develop. The air below the layer is hot and dry, so some or even most of any potential rain that falls into it will evaporate. That leaves us with the threat of dry lightning on both Monday and Tuesday. Down at ground level, we’ll continue to see seasonable temperatures with patchy clouds on the coast and hot & dry weather inland.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

Overnight: After brief partial clearing, low clouds will start to fill back in around the bay late. Patchy fog possible. We’ll also see a few mid-level clouds streaming in from the south at times. Expect lows in the upper 40s to low 50s on the coast, low to upper 50s for inland valleys, and 60s up in the hills.

Monday: Patchy low clouds on the coast, mainly on the south/east sides of the bay. Scattered mid-level cloud stream in from the south, especially in the afternoon with a slight chance of a (mostly dry) shower or thunderstorm. Expect coastal highs in the low 60s to mid 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay on the coast—and upper 70s to around 100ºF inland. Breezy up-valley winds late in the day. There is also a slight chance of briefly gusty winds if any showers or thunderstorms develop.

Tuesday: Patchy low clouds on the coast, mainly on the south/east sides of the bay. Scattered mid-level cloud stream in from the south throughout the day, though decreasing late. A slight chance for a (mostly dry) shower or thunderstorm. Expect coastal highs in the low 60s to mid 70s on the coast—warmest on the north side of the bay—and upper 70s to around 100ºF inland. Breezy westerly onshore winds becoming windy up-valleys in the afternoon. There is also a slight chance of briefly gusty winds if any showers or thunderstorms develop.

Extended: Tropical moisture departs on Wednesday. Low clouds will remain on the coast through the end of the week, perhaps becoming thicker Thu/Fri. All areas will slowly cool down through the end of the week with the coolest day both on the coast and inland Friday. Then, the trend will reverse with clearing and warming through the weekend.

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 68ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 83ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 1^st - 7^th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and normal* precipitation.
*Note: little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña by late summer.
- Area drought status: Currently drought-free
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of June 24^th: 55.9ºF
(Historic June AVG: 56.7ºF) -- *average of three buoys