Persistent Pattern For Now
We'll remain blocked up in this summer-like pattern for the remainder of the week. The big subtropical ridge is holding court off to our northwest with a chain of upper level lows stretching from Hawai’i into the central U.S. Coastal temperatures remain more influenced by the marine layer, which is stable and moderately deep—and won’t change much for the next few days—so continue expect the daily cycle of low clouds and slightly below normal temperatures. The ridge rebuilds slightly Wednesday into Thursday, so inland areas will warm back up a few degrees. Then, the next subtropical low slides in from the southwest as the ridge moves west, potentially allowing a merger of the low and an upper level trough digging in from the north. At the very least, we’ll see cooler conditions inland. The deepening marine layer may mix out as well, which will increase sunshine and temperatures on the coast. I’m also tracking a very slight chance at precipitation, but the models are trending dryer today.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Overcast with low clouds on the coast and inland valleys, mostly clear elsewhere. Patchy fog for inland valleys and the coastal hills. A bit of drizzle also possible. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s on the coast and 40s to around 50ºF inland.
Wednesday: Overcast for the coast and valleys early, then becoming partly cloudy on the coast with lingering low clouds, perhaps more focused on the outer coast and the north/east sides of the bay as the low level flow will be a bit more southwesterly. Mostly sunny inland with a few high clouds drifting in form the east. Coastal highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and upper 60s to 80s inland. Breezy west-southwesterly onshore winds becoming windy for the valleys late in the day.
Thursday: Overcast for the coast and valleys early, then becoming partly cloudy on the coast with lingering low clouds, perhaps more focused on the outer coast and the north/east sides of the bay as the low level flow will be a bit more southwesterly. Mostly sunny inland with a few high clouds drifting in form the east. Coastal highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and upper 60s to 80s inland. Breezy west-southwesterly onshore winds becoming windy for the valleys late in the day.
Extended: The marine layer will deepen a bit on Friday which may initially allow for some drizzle late Thursday night into Friday morning. It should be deep enough to mix out on Friday which will lead to sunnier, warmer weather on the coast—but only seasonable at best. Inland areas will cool but remain sunny. Expect partly cloudy skies this weekend as a trough passes to the north. Shower chances are very low, but not zero. We’re watching. Temperatures will initially warm into early next week before a late-week cooldown.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 65ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 75ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 22nd - 28th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral soon and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
