Late Season Rain Ahead
Not much change is expected in the weather day to day through mid-week. The weather pattern remains stationary with a big ridge to the west and a trough off to our northeast. These two features are funneling wind out of the northwest through our region. All the while, temperatures are close to normal on average. We’ll see another day or two of this pattern before changes begin to occur on Friday. First, winds will become more westerly, allowing for more of a marine layer to develop with more persistent low clouds and cooler temperatures. We might even squeeze a little drizzle out Friday morning. Then, the ridge retreating westward will allow a weather system to sneak in from the northwest. This unseasonably cold system is looking more and more likely to bring moderate rain to the region starting Saturday afternoon and potentially lingering through Sunday. We could see up to 2” of rain in the coastal mountains and a half inch for cities around the bay. Stay tuned to the forecast.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point south to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) until 3AM this evening
*Northwest winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas of 8 to 11ft.
…AND for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos south to Point Piedras Blancas extended until 3AM Thursday.
*Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 7 to 12 ft.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few low clouds developing on the windward slopes of the coastal ranges. Fog possible in low areas near the coast and in the valleys by dawn. Northwest winds persist along the exposed coast and perhaps some valleys/gaps. Expect coastal lows in the 40s with mid 30s to low 40s inland.
Wednesday: Sunny for most of the day with some high clouds arriving late. A touch warmer with coastal highs in the 60s to mid 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and 70s to around 80ºF inland. Gusty northwesterly onshore and up-valley winds for most of the day.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through and low clouds on the coast late. A touch warmer yet with coastal highs in the 60s to upper 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and 70s to low 80s inland. Gusty northwesterly onshore and up-valley winds for most of the day.
Extended: Low clouds will thicken on the coast Friday morning with some drizzle possible. Temperatures will cool overall Friday and it still may be windy at times. A weather system will then likely bring rain later in the day Saturday, then showers & potential storms overnight, with lingering showers into Sunday. Temps drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most areas—quite cool for this time of year. Some warming then expected next week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 48ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 73ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 8th – 14th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
