Under The Influence Of The Pacific Storm
Rain chances continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of low pressure remains stalled to our north. Moist southwest flow will continue overnight, spawning showers in the coastal mountains and a few rounds of showers/thunderstorms may rotate in from the west as well. A stronger disturbance will move in Tuesday afternoon with a more widespread moderate rain threat. Brief downpours will be possible and there is also a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers will linger into Wednesday before dryer weather returns.
AIR QUALITY: Good
**WIND ADVISORY**...for the entire Central Coast until 4 AM Tuesday
*South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph expected.
*Impacts...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects; tree limbs could be blown down and isolated power outages.
*The strongest winds will occur along the immediate coast and within higher terrain. Use extra caution when driving. Secure outdoor objects.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties extended until 4AM Tuesday.
*Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet along exposed, west-facing beaches. Locally higher waves up to 28 feet possible along some favored areas with steep beaches.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*These waves are caused by a combination of locally strong southerly winds and an incoming westerly swell from more intense storms located well offshore.
Beachgoers should never turn their back to the ocean during high surf. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
*FLOOD WATCH*…remains in effect for the entire KION coverage area of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties now through Wednesday morning.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas.
- Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will bring the potential for minor to moderate local flooding, as well as rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. Although most main stem river sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, minor flooding in urban areas and along smaller creeks and streams is expected.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
…for the River Fire Burn Area in effect now through Wednesday morning.
*Flash flooding and debris flows caused by excessive rainfall are possible over the River Fire burn area.
*Heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area is expected up to and during the period of the watch. Residents near the River Fire burn area should prepare for potential flooding impacts. Be
sure to stay up to date with information from local authorities. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding of low-lying areas, urbanized street flooding, and debris flows in and near recent wildfire burn scars.
- National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting the potential for heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Overnight: Partly cloudy with showers in the coastal mountains. An isolated shower possible elsewhere and there is also a slight chance for a thunderstorm mainly over Santa Cruz County. Lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s. Gusty southerly winds at times, slowly tapering off.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms possible. Southerly winds, windy at times, slowly tapering off. Cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lingering showers, perhaps popping back up over the hills in the afternoon. Cooler with breezy northwest winds. Highs in the 50s to around 60ºF.
Extended: Expect a dry and seasonable day on Thursday before clouds increase again on Friday. Rain is possible late as a weak weather system approaches from the west. There is some uncertainty as to when it will arrive—the ETA varies from late Friday to Sunday based on available models. Either way, rain is not expected to be all that heavy—mainly light to moderate when it does arrive. Stay tuned to the forecast.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 64ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 27th – March 4th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
