Winds Ease, Showers Persist
Winds ease overnight, but rain chances will continue for the next few days.
The large scale storm system that brought extreme wind to the Monterey Bay Area on Sunday will slowly spin out to our north. All the while, moist onshore flow will continue and that will keep showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms in the forecast into Monday. Some showers may “train” over the same areas which could cause minor flooding. The weather system will continue to weaken and then push back down the coast on Tuesday, shifting our winds to the northwest and pushing a few more showers and cooler air through the area. A weak system will then travel down the coast Wednesday/Thursday bringing more showers before we finally dry out into the weekend.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
…for the entire KION coverage area in Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties with the exception of the Santa Clara Valley extended until 8AM Monday
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
*Gusts up to 80 mph in the highest peaks of the Santa Lucia Range and mountains of San Benito County.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
***GALE WARNING***
… for all near coastal waters until 3PM Monday
-South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 14 to 16 ft expected from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas
-South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 12 to 16 ft expected from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos.
-South winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7-12 ft expected for Monterey Bay
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties in effect until 4AM Monday
*Large breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet. Locally higher breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet near the Big Sur coast.
*Especially for south-facing beaches.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*A low pressure system is expected to rapidly strengthen offshore the Bay Area coastline bringing a large southerly swell. The largest breaking waves are expected to occur generally south of Point Pinos along the Big Sur coastline. However, all south- facing beaches from the North Bay down to the Central Coast will be at risk for dangerous beach conditions due to large, energetic swell coming from the south.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Santa Clara Valley in Santa Clara County extended until 8AM Monday.
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
…for the River Fire Burn Scar Area in Monterey County through Monday morning.
*Flash flooding and debris flows caused by excessive rainfall continue to be possible over the River Fire burn area.
*Heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area is expected up to and during the period of the watch. Residents near the River Fire burn area should prepare for potential flooding impacts. Be sure to stay up to date with information from local authorities.
Heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding of low-lying areas, urbanized street flooding, hyper-concentrated mudflows, and debris flows in and near recent wildfire burn scars. Soils remain saturated and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
- National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting heavy rainfall over the River Fire burn area, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and (Southern) Santa Clara Counties through Monday morning.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy with rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Brief heavy rain possible. Gusty winds at times. Lows in the 40s.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy with rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds possible. Highs in the 50s to around 60ºF.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered showers. Highs in the 50s.
Extended: Showers linger on Wednesday & Thursday with occasional gusty northwesterly winds. Highs remain cool—in the 50s—before a slow warmup into a dry weekend.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 39ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 12th – 18th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
