Showery Days And Then A Strong Storm Sunday
Showery, unsettled weather will continue Friday and possibly into Saturday morning as a cold, unstable air mass moves in off the Pacific. Rounds of showers will persist during the day Friday, though there will be breaks of sunshine. The overall air mass will continue to cool, however, with highs expected to be well below normal. Clouds then increase Saturday as the next storm system approaches, likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to our area into Sunday. This has the potential to be a significant storm with regard to both wind and rain. Details have yet to be sorted out as there are a lot of factors that will lead to where the strongest winds and heaviest rain will make landfall on the California coast, but at this moment, with regard to our area, the Big Sur Coast is most likely to see the brunt of it. Stay tuned to the forecast.
AIR QUALITY: Good
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties extended until 3AM Saturday
*Large breaking waves of 14 to 18 feet.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion.
*West facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Small hail is possible. Fog will be possible in low areas in between showers. Lows in the 40s for most areas.
Friday: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Small hail possible. Snow levels down to 4,500ft. Cool with breezy westerly winds at times. Highs in the 50s with 40s in the hills.
Saturday: A few showers may linger into the morning, then becoming partly cloudy briefly. Cool, with highs in the 50s. Clouds increase later in the day with rain beginning to move in from the southwest. Gusty winds on the coast late.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire KION coverage area of Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties in effect form Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
*Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may
reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Sunday: Strong winds and heavy rain are likely on Sunday, especially on the coast and in the coastal mountains. Some areas on the exposed coast may see damaging winds. Flooding will also be possible in some areas. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
…for the entire KION coverage area in Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties with the exception of the Santa Clara Valley in effect from 4AM Sunday until 10PM Sunday.
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Santa Clara Valley in Santa Clara County in effect from 4AM Sunday until 10PM Sunday.
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
***MARINE ALERTS***
GALE WARNING … for all near coastal waters from 3AM Sunday until 9AM Sunday
STORM WARNING … for all near coastal waters from 9AM Sunday until 3PM Sunday
Southeast winds 25 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt expected (up to 60kt along the Big Sur Coast to the Peninsula) and seas of 8-10ft
*Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Extended: Rain will taper off on Monday and then we’ll see several smaller systems moving down from the north through mid-week all with bursts of wind and showers.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 9th – 15th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
