Big Waves & Several Rounds of Rain
A complex series of weather systems will bring rain, wind, thunderstorms, and high surf to the region over the next few days. A stalled boundary will remain on Thursday with additional showers possible along it. The parent storm of the boundary also produced some tremendous swells which will reach our shores during the day on Thursday. This high surf, coinciding with astronomically high tides will increase the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion, not to mention the safety risks of the large breakers. A second storm system is making big swells to our west which will arrive on Saturday, but there will be a brief lull on Friday. That storm system will also push a strong cold front through our area later in the day on Friday with heavy rain possible. This fast-moving front will also have strong, gusty winds along and ahead of it and the potential for thunderstorms along and behind it all the way into the day Saturday. That’s just the next three days.
AIR QUALITY: GOOD
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
**COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 3AM Friday.
-Minor coastal flooding expected
*Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected
*Tidal levels are running around 1 foot higher than tidal predictions, resulting in minor coastal flooding for low-lying, flood-prone spots
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property
Overnight: Overcast on the coast with periods of rain. Lows in the low 50s. Partly cloudy inland with isolated showers in the north. Lows in the 40s.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect from 3AM Thursday until 3AM Friday.
-Dangerously large breaking waves of 28 to 33 ft with up to 40 ft possible at favored locations. High surf will subside Friday before another large swell train arrives Saturday.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy for the coast with scattered showers at times. Partly cloudy inland with an isolated shower or two possible mainly in the north. Light southerly winds with highs mainly in the 60s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy on the coast and partly cloudy inland early in the day with isolated showers possible mainly near the coast. Southerly winds increase and will become gusty in the afternoon. Highs mainly in the 60s. A cold front will bring wind and rain and potentially a few thunderstorms to the region as early as late afternoon and then into the evening. Heavy rain is possible, though the fast-moving front won’t stick around too long.
Extended: Showers & thunderstorms are possible on Saturday as the low passes by, then a few more showers may linger into Sunday, though they will be isolated. Temperatures will cool into the 50s for most areas to close out 2023 and usher in 2024. Drier weather is then expected Monday and most of Tuesday, but another storm system should arrive around Wednesday.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 59ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 4th – 10th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
