Showers Tuesday, Heavier Rain Wednesday
Rain continues overnight into Tuesday with rounds of showers moving in from the west. Moist south-southwest flow will keep the rain machine going in the coastal mountains on top of any additional showers. It will also keep temperatures mild. Shower activity will die down a bit on Tuesday as we’ll be in a bit of a lull between systems, but that southwest flow will keep a few showers in the forecast. With that said, if we get some sunshine, there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm, especially over the inland mountains.
The next system, packed with cold air from the north will arrive early Wednesday morning, using the moist air mass as fuel and creating heavier rainfall into Wednesday. Most of us will get a longer duration rain event with moderate to briefly heavy rain possible which will then taper off into Wednesday afternoon. Areas with mountains to the south may experience rain shadowing. This system will have gusty winds Wednesday morning as well, but it is not looking extreme.
Rainfall forecast through Thursday morning (starting midnight Monday)
Coastal Mountains: 3-6”
Santa Cruz-Watsonville area: 1-2.5”
Peninsula to Salinas: 0.75-1.5”
Northern Valleys: 1-3”
Southern Valleys: 0.75-2”
AIR QUALITY: GOOD
***GALE WARNING***
From the National Weather Service in Monterey for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from NOW until 3AM Tuesday
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with ongoing rain in the coastal mountains and scattered showers elsewhere. Gusty southerly winds at times. Mild, with lows in the 50s.
Tuesday: A more concentrated round of showers in the morning, becoming more isolated in the afternoon. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Gusty southerly winds at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Periods of moderate to heavy rain early, then becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers—more numerous in the south. Slightly cooler with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Gusty southerly winds at times.
Extended: The storm will be to our south on Thursday, but may throw up some additional rounds of rain our way. We’ll warm a touch on Friday before a dry cold front with cooler northwesterly winds brings highs back down to normal or slightly below into the holiday weekend. Winds ease but become more northerly this weekend, ushering in dry air which will result seasonable highs and lows—which are usually pretty chilly this time of year!
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 59ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 26th – January 1st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
