Intrigue In The Sky

While our weather pattern seems pretty quiet right now, there is a little intrigue hiding just above our heads. The overall weather patterns reveals that we are sandwiched between an expansive area of high pressure to our southeast and a gyre-like low pressure center in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge is more dominant due to its proximity and continues to cook our inland areas, though temperatures have been much closer to normal these past few days. The interesting thing is the narrow plume of moisture that has been drawn in around the high from the south. This moisture helped destabilize the atmosphere on Tuesday with isolated, high-based showers in southeastern Monterey County and even thunderstorms into the San Joaquin Valley. This plume will remain over our area into early Wednesday and could allow for additional development—though the probability remains somewhat low. If something does develop, only a few rain drops and an isolated lightning bolt will be possible. Beyond this stream of moisture, we’ll see the ridge nudge back to the west in the coming days, warming temperatures back up. This will be notable inland with highs returning to 5-10ºF above normal. At the coast, compression of the marine layer will allow for some warming but also make fog more possible. Temps are likely to peak Friday with some leveling off into next week. On top of all of that, some smoke will remain possible in the low to mid-levels in the coming days from a wildfire in southwest Oregon.

AIR QUALITY:  Good to Moderate

Overnight: Low clouds fill back in around the bay and will begin to push into inland valleys. Patchy fog possible. Otherwise, mostly clear with high clouds streaming in from the southwest. There is a very slight chance of a high based (mainly dry) shower or thunderstorm. That chance is higher south of Monterey Bay but is still low! Expect lows in the 50s on the coast and inland valleys with 60s up in the hills.
 
Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy on the coast with low clouds focused on the south side of the bay. Sunny inland as high clouds move out of the area. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 70s on the coast with mid 70s to low 100s inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore winds at the coast becoming stronger for inland valleys in the late afternoon and early evening.

Thursday: Widespread low clouds with patchy fog for the coast and inland valley early, becoming partly cloudy on the coast with low clouds focused on the south side of the bay. Sunny inland. Warmer, with highs in the 60s to low 70s on the coast with mid 70s to mid 100s inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore winds at the coast becoming stronger for inland valleys in the late afternoon and early evening.

Extended: Temperatures will continue to warm until Friday, peaking and leveling off through the weekend. Expect some low cloudcover on the coast day to day, more likely to be fog into the weekend with the compressed marine layer.

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 69ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 87ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 26^th –  August 1^st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation. Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- Forecast: El Niño developing this summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free