Calm Morning Before A Stormy Afternoon
The strongest storm system of the season (so far) arrives today. A strong cold frontal system packed with a deep moisture tap will sweep through our area into Thursday morning. Southerly flow will slowly pick up throughout the day, becoming strong late in the day. While a few light showers may pass through early, the bulk of the rain will hold off until the afternoon. Initially, rain will mostly impact the coastal mountains but then will slowly fill in around the bay into the evening hours. Winds will be strong enough to knock down trees/branches and damage property/power infrastructure and block roads. These strong winds are mostly likely on the ridge tops and on the exposed coast. Some stronger funneling in the valleys will also be possible. Rain will be constant and moderate to heavy in the coastal mountains before tapering off after midnight and occasionally heavy elsewhere during the period. Small stream and street flooding is definitely possible, especially across Santa Cruz County and on the outer Monterey Coast. Some valley locations may experience rain-shadowing and won’t see as much precipitation—Salinas, Hollister, and even Monterey may be included. We’ll then break to showers with a chance of thunderstorms into Thursday and winds, while remaining breezy, will diminish.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia Range/Los Padres National Forest and north coast of Santa Cruz County, additionally, coastal Monterey County and the inland mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties until 4AM Thursday
*South winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
*Wind gusts around 55 mph are possible along ridge tops and locally above 60 mph on the highest peaks.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
***GALE WARNING***
… In effect until 3pm Wednesday from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos and Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California.
*South/Southeast winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 8 to 11 ft.
expected.
* Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the Monterey Bay in effect until 9pm Wednesday.
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for coastal Santa Cruz County and the lower elevation valleys of Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties until 4AM Thursday.
*South winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties until late Thursday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest greatest accumulation of precipitation will be observed across the North (San Francisco) Bay and along the coastal ranges. Rainfall totals remain consistent with 1.5 to 3 inches expected across most areas with 3-5 inches expected over the North Bay. Locally up to 6 to 8 inches over favored peaks and higher terrain of the North Bay and up to 4 to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
– Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may
reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
Ensemble guidance shows a greater than 50 percent chance of reaching flood stage on numerous rivers and creeks across the North Bay and monitor stage on the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees and numerous other locations across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay Area by Thursday.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Wednesday: A chance of showers early, then rain developing later in the day and becoming heavy at times in the evening, especially on the coast and in the coastal mountains. Minor flooding possible. Strong southerly winds at times with wind damage possible. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
***STORM WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos from 3pm Wednesday until 9PM Wednesday.
…from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 3pm Wednesday until 3AM Wednesday.
*South/Southeast winds 25 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and seas 11 to 15 ft expected.
*Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect from 3PM Wednesday until 3PM Thursday
*Large breaking waves of 22 to 26 feet.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*West facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will impact beaches in the advisory area, producing rip currents, localized beach erosion, and sneaker waves.
***STORM WARNING***
…In effect from 3pm Wednesday to 3am Thursday for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California.
Southeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and seas 11 to 15ft expected.
*Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Overnight: Scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Individual storms could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. Showers will become less abundant, into dawn, but still expecting light showers in the region. Southerly winds will ease but will continue to be gusty at times. Cooler lows, mostly 40s with a few 30s inland.
***GALE WARNING***
… In effect from 9pm Wednesday to 3am Thursday from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos.
*Southwest winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 45kt and seas 13 to 15 ft.
expected.
* Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, cooler, breezy, with rounds of showers and the chance of an embedded thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 50s to 60s.
Extended: Showers linger on Friday with somewhat of a break on Saturday (there is still a slight chance of showers). All the while, expect cool, breezy conditions. The next system takes aim at us on Sunday with the potential for heavy rain and strong winds once again.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week’s normal temperatures:
–COASTAL CITIES–
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
–INLAND CITIES–
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 7th – 13th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
– ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
– ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
