Fire, Wind, Surf Alerts
Air Quality Report (As of 6:00pm)
Good to moderate for all reporting areas,
Weather Story:
A dry area of low pressure will descend through the Great Basin overnight. As it does so, it will force winds offshore across most of California. These offshore winds will be accompanied by drying air and could get gusty at times over the hills. Fire danger and the threat of minor wind damage will increase over the hills during this periods. Temperatures will also head upward Monday/Tuesday and could approach records. Additionally, a strong storm system of the Gulf of Alaska is generating large swells. The initial swells will arrive on our coast Monday with the largest swells reaching us by Tuesday. Conditions will be hazardous at area beaches through the period.
By mid-week, a weak, dry cold front will reach the coast and direct flow back onshore. Temperatures will cool off for most areas through late in the week. Then, high pressure will build back in from the southwest, initiating a slow warming trend. The next chance of rain may be here as “early” as December 14th.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***RED FLAG WARNING***
... for the Santa Cruz Mountains along with the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County from 11PM tonight through 11AM Monday. The same areas are also under a *Wind Advisory* for the same time period.
Northeast winds will develop before midnight across the North and East Bay hills. Winds will increase overnight into Monday morning and overspread much of the Bay Area. The strongest winds will remain in the hills but also drop into lower elevations including the coastline from Sonoma to San Mateo. The strongest winds are expected during the morning hours of Monday with widespread gusts to 45 mph and localized gusts to 60 mph in the hills.
Winds will increase before midnight tonight then increase overnight into Monday morning. The strongest winds are forecast Monday morning through midday before slowly easing late Monday
afternoon.
Expect north winds of 15 to 25mph with frequent gusts up to 45 mph above 1000 feet.
Humidity will be moderate tonight from 40-50% but gradually lower to 25-35% by midday Monday.
Record highs into the 70s on Monday will be possible.
Any new starts aligned with wind will likely show rapid growth as fuels remain at or near all-time record dry levels for early December. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and potential for power outages.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Be prepared for possible power outages.
Overnight: Becoming mostly clear. Gusty offshore winds over the hills and on the exposed coast. Occasionally breezy elsewhere. Chilly in the valley bottoms with lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Coastal lows will mainly be in the 40s along with the higher elevations.
Monday: Sunny and mild. Gusty offshore winds over the hills and on the exposed coast. Occasionally breezy elsewhere. Winds die down over the northern mountains in the afternoon, but may continue over our southern mountains into the overnight. Offshore winds will lead to warm, dry conditions in the afternoon with most areas topping out in the 70s, save for a few coastal areas which will remain in the upper 60s.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
*Beach Hazards Statement*
... for north/west-facing beaches from Monday morning through Monday afternoon, then…
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
... for north/west-facing beaches through 5PM Tuesday
A strong storm system near the Aleutians is forecast to generate a very large, very long period northwest swell train that will arrive Monday before peaking Monday Night and Tuesday along the coast. For Monday, the primary hazard will be on the beaches where infrequent yet dangerous sneaker waves and stronger rip currents are expected. By Monday night, the swell heights are forecast to increase rapidly and the primary hazard will shift towards large breaking waves of roughly 25 feet at west and northwest facing beaches prompting dangerous conditions in the surf zone at west to northwest facing beaches. A beach hazard statement is in effect on Monday during the day for the sneaker wave threat while a high surf warning is in effect for Monday night through the day Tuesday for the large breaking waves expected. Cold water drownings occur each year with these type of events but are completely avoidable by remaining a safe distance from the coastline. If you must visit the coastline, avoid venturing out on coastal rocks, outcroppings, jetties, etc, and remain extremely vigilant of your surroundings at all times.
For the Beach Hazards Statement, infrequent yet dangerous, sneaker waves are expected on Monday. For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 feet at west to northwest beaches Monday Night through Tuesday. Enhanced coastal run up, localized beach erosion, and stronger rip currents are expected both Monday and Tuesday.
Main threat will be at west to northwest facings beaches along the entire coastline from Sonoma county southward through Big Sur in Monterey county. Excludes the Northern Monterey Bay
(including Santa Cruz) due to this area being sheltered from the northwest seas.
Sneaker waves and large breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Cold water rescues or drownings are more likely with these waves and stronger rip currents.
These types of events lead to cold water drownings each year so extreme vigilance is advised.
A Beach Hazard Statement for sneaker waves means that conditions are present to support a heightened risk of unsuspecting beach goers being swept into the sea by a wave. People walking along the beach should never turn their back to the sea. Fisherman should avoid fishing from rocks or jetties. Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing over large rocks and jetties.
A High Surf Warning for large breaking waves means conditions are present to support large waves along the surf zone capable of sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will be dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking waves.
Tuesday: Lighter offshore winds, will allow fire danger to ease, but conditions will remain warm and dry under full sunshine. Most areas will see highs in the 70s with a few spots reaching the upper 70s.
Extended: Temperatures will cool significantly on Wednesday as winds switch back onshore. Temperatures remain cooler (but seasonable) through the end of the week under mostly sunny skies. Some warming expected this weekend. A weather system may bring some light rain to the region early next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 35ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 14th – 20th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Weak La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties and the far eastern side of San Benito County, Abnormally dry for all other areas.
