Rain Tapers Off For Now
Rain will taper off overnight as Wednesday’s storm system departs to the east. Behind it, an unsettled air mass will continue to push in off the Pacific for the next couple of days. Initially unstable, there will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms embedded within the showers on Thursday and shower chances will continue into Friday and perhaps even early Saturday. All the while, expect cool, breezy conditions.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***STORM WARNING***
…In effect from until 3am Thursday for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California.
Southeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and seas 11 to 15ft expected.
*Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of San Benito County including the San Juan Bautista and Hollister areas south to around the Pinnacles in effect until 6AM Thursday.
*Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
* - At 1156 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 0.2 and 0.5 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.6 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Hollister, Ridgemark, Prunedale and San Juan Bautista.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Monterey County from Prunedale south to King City and west to the existing advisory on the coast in effect until 5:45AM
*Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
- At 1136 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 0.3 and 0.6 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.8 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Salinas, Arroyo Seco, Jamesburg, Tassajara Hot Springs, Lucia, Gorda, Soledad, Greenfield, King City, Gonzales, Sycamore Flat, Chualar, Colman Canyon, Spreckels and Prunedale.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…from south Santa Cruz County, around Monterey Bay, down the coast to Big Sur, and inland along the Highway 101 corridor north of Salinas until 3:15AM Thursday
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways.
At 1017 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is already occurring in the advisory area.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Salinas, Watsonville, Seaside, Monterey, Marina, Big Sur Village, Corralitos, Pacific Grove, Carmel-By-The-Sea, Carmel Valley Village, San Clemente Dam, Spreckels, Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam, Boronda, Pico Blanco campground, Del Monte Forest, Castroville, Andrew Molera State Park, Moss Landing and Prunedale.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for western Santa Cruz County in effect extended until 3:00AM Thursday
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways.
- At 1004 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain expected to continue over the next few hours. This is causing urban and small stream flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Santa Cruz, Corralitos, Scotts Valley, Capitola, Live Oak, Ben Lomond, Felton, Boulder Creek, Twin Lakes, Soquel, Opal Cliffs, Aptos, Rio Del Mar, Eureka Canyon Road, Lexington Hills, Day Valley and Aptos Hills-Larkin Valley.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 3PM Thursday
*Large breaking waves of 22 to 26 feet.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*West facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will impact beaches in the advisory area, producing rip currents, localized beach erosion, and sneaker waves.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties until late Thursday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest greatest accumulation of precipitation will be observed across the North (San Francisco) Bay and along the coastal ranges. Rainfall totals remain consistent with 1.5 to 3 inches expected across most areas with 3-5 inches expected over the North Bay. Locally up to 6 to 8 inches over favored peaks and higher terrain of the North Bay and up to 4 to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
– Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for moderate to rapid rises along area rivers, streams, and creeks across the region. This could result in nuisance as well as minor flooding. Although many sites are forecast to remain below flood stage, several locations may
reach and exceed flood stage across the region.
Ensemble guidance shows a greater than 50 percent chance of reaching flood stage on numerous rivers and creeks across the North Bay and monitor stage on the San Lorenzo River at Big Trees and numerous other locations across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay Area by Thursday.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Overnight: Rain & wind taper off, becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers. Fog possible in clear, sheltered areas. Lows in the 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, cooler, breezy, with rounds of showers and the chance of an embedded thunderstorm. Highs in the 50s.
Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Cool & breezy with highs in the 50s.
Extended: A few showers may linger into early Saturday but then we’ll get a short break before the next system approaches. It could bring rain as early as late Saturday with the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday/Monday. This storm is getting more intense in the model runs, so concern is growing for flooding and wind damage. Please stay tuned to our forecast.
*Note: Alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey are noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 8th – 14th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
