Strong Strom on Our Doorstep, Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds
High surf and coastal flooding will remain a risk throughout Friday, along with beach erosion, and safety risks of large breakers. The next storm system is making big swells to our west which will arrive late in the day Friday, but there will be a brief lull early in the day. That storm system will also push a strong cold front through our area later in the day on Friday with heavy rain likely. This fast-moving front will also have strong, gusty winds along and ahead of it and the potential for thunderstorms along and behind it all the way into Saturday afternoon. Rainfall rates may overwhelm poorly drained areas and roadways. Friday evening’s commute is looking difficult around the bay.
AIR QUALITY: GOOD
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 2PM Saturday.
*Dangerously large breaking waves of 28 to 33 ft with isolated waves up to 40 ft.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
***COASTAL FLOOD WARNING***
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 2PM Saturday.
-Significant coastal flooding expected
*Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.
Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas including Monterey Bay in effect until 9PM Friday
*South winds 15 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for Santa Cruz County and the Santa Cruz Mountains into Santa Clara County, the coast, coastal mountains, and lower elevation valleys of Monterey County, and the lower elevation valleys of San Benito & Santa Clara Counties in effect until 7PM Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Rest of Friday: Mostly cloudy on the coast and partly cloudy inland early in the day with isolated showers possible mainly near the coast. Clouds will increase by lunchtime. Southerly winds increase and will become gusty in the afternoon. Highs mainly in the 60s. A cold front will bring wind and rain to the region as early as mid-afternoon and then into the evening. Heavy rain is possible, though the fast-moving front won’t stick around too long.
Overnight: Rounds of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will follow the front late evening and into the morning. Winds will ease, but will still be gusty at times. Mostly cloudy conditions. Lows, a touch cooler in the upper 40s to mid-50s across the region.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, dying off late in the day. Cooler, with highs in the 50s to around 60ºF. Breezy northwest winds at times. Snow levels drop to around 4,500ft.
Extended: A weak disturbance passes to our south on Sunday and may push a few light showers into our area. Otherwise, expect seasonable temperatures as we head into the New Year with dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday before another system arrives Wednesday.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 59ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 5th – 11th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
