Strong Cold Front On The Way
High surf will slowly ease overnight, but there remains an increased risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion, not to mention the safety risks of the large breakers. The next storm system is making big swells to our west which will arrive late in the day Friday, but there will be a brief lull early in the day. That storm system will also push a strong cold front through our area later in the day on Friday with heavy rain likely. This fast-moving front will also have strong, gusty winds along and ahead of it and the potential for thunderstorms along and behind it all the way into Saturday afternoon. Rainfall rates may overwhelm poorly drained areas and roadways. Friday evening’s commute is looking difficult around the bay.
AIR QUALITY: GOOD
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 3AM Friday.
-Dangerously large breaking waves of 28 to 33 ft with up to 40 ft possible at favored locations. High surf will subside Friday before another large swell train arrives Saturday.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
**COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 2PM Friday.
-Minor coastal flooding expected due to high surf
*Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected
*Numerous roads may be closed. Low-lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for the Carmel Lagoon and Carmel-by-the-Sea extended until 2AM Friday.
Flooding caused by high surf continues.
*For flood prone areas around the Carmel Lagoon, including River Park Place, locations south of 15th Avenue, and Mission Ranch.
*Flooding may occur at the Carmel River State Beach parking lot and potentially impact adjacent neighborhoods south of 15th Avenue, including but not limited to Carmelo Street and Camino Real Street. Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. Some low-water crossings may become impassable.
- At 912 PM PST, Emergency management reported flooding along Carmelo Street and Camino Real Street in the advisory area. Minor flooding is already occurring. Large surf in combination with high tides and potential runoff may result in additional rises of the Carmel River and the Carmel River Lagoon.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include the flood prone areas surrounding the Carmel Lagoon.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy on the coast with occasional light rain, especially in the coastal mountains. Partly cloudy inland with patchy fog. Lows in the 50s for most areas.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) and from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 3AM Friday until 9PM Friday
…for Monterey Bay in effect from 9AM Friday until 9PM Friday
*South winds 15 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for Santa Cruz County and the Santa Cruz Mountains into Santa Clara County, the coast, coastal mountains, and lower elevation valleys of Monterey County, and the lower elevation valleys of San Benito & Santa Clara Counties in effect from 7AM Friday until 7PM Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Friday: Mostly cloudy on the coast and partly cloudy inland early in the day with isolated showers possible mainly near the coast. Southerly winds increase and will become gusty in the afternoon. Highs mainly in the 60s. A cold front will bring wind and rain to the region as early as mid-afternoon and then into the evening. Heavy rain is possible, though the fast-moving front won’t stick around too long. Showers and perhaps thunderstorms will follow the front in the evening and into the overnight.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, dying off late in the day. Cooler, with highs in the 50s to around 60ºF. Breezy northwest winds at times. Snow levels drop to around 4,500ft.
Extended: A weak disturbance passes to our south on Sunday and may push a few light showers into our area. Otherwise, expect seasonable temperatures as we head into the New Year with dry conditions expected Monday and Tuesday before another system arrives Wednesday.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 59ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 5th – 11th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
