Central Coast Remains Damp on Thursday, Stronger System Approaching
A complex series of weather systems will bring rain, wind, thunderstorms, and high surf to the region over the next few days. A stalled boundary will remain on Thursday with additional showers possible along it. The parent storm of the boundary also produced some tremendous swells which will reach our shores during the day on Thursday. This high surf, coinciding with astronomically high tides will increase the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion, not to mention the safety risks of the large breakers. A second storm system is making big swells to our west which will arrive on Saturday, but there will be a brief lull on Friday. That storm system will also push a strong cold front through our area later in the day on Friday with heavy rain possible. This fast-moving front will also have strong, gusty winds along and ahead of it and the potential for thunderstorms along and behind it all the way into Saturday afternoon. That’s just the next three days.
AIR QUALITY: GOOD to MODERATE
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 3AM Friday.
-Dangerously large breaking waves of 28 to 33 ft with up to 40 ft possible at favored locations. High surf will subside Friday before another large swell train arrives Saturday.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
**COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coastline of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 2PM Friday.
-Minor coastal flooding expected due to high surf
*Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected
*Numerous roads may be closed. Low-lying property including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for the Carmel Lagoon and Carmel-by-the-Sea extended until 4PM Thursday.
*Coastal flooding caused by high surf is expected.
* Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
* - At 122 PM PST, Gauge reports indicated minor rises in water levels at the Carmel Lagoon with the current level at 11.9 feet. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Carmel-By-The-Sea.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy for the coast with scattered showers at times. Partly cloudy inland with an isolated shower or two possible mainly in the north. Light southerly winds with highs mainly in the 60s.
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the region, with the chance of a few light showers. Areas of patchy fog possible. Lows will be mild mainly in the low to mid 50s, a few upper 40s for inland locations.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for Santa Cruz County and the Santa Cruz Mountains into Santa Clara County, the caost, coastal mountains, and lower elevation valleys of Monterey County, and the notheren, lower elevation valleys of San Benito County in effect from 7AM Friday until 7PM Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Friday: Mostly cloudy on the coast and partly cloudy inland early in the day with isolated showers possible mainly near the coast. Southerly winds increase and will become gusty in the afternoon. Highs mainly in the 60s. A cold front will bring wind and rain and potentially a few thunderstorms to the region as early as mid-afternoon and then into the evening. Heavy rain is possible, though the fast-moving front won’t stick around too long.
Extended: Showers & thunderstorms are possible on Saturday as the low passes by, then a few more showers may linger into Sunday, though they will be isolated. Temperatures will cool into the 50s for most areas to close out 2023 and usher in 2024. Drier weather is then expected Monday and most of Tuesday, but another storm system should arrive around Wednesday.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 59ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 4th – 10th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
