The Warm Sector
The best (worst?) is yet to come with our mid-November storm system. We remain in the warm sector overnight with southerly flow keeping moist, mild air in our area. Along for the ride, a few isolated showers and perhaps a thundershower will persist into early Friday. Then, an approaching wave rotating around the bigger low to our west will move into the area bringing widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Additional rounds of showers/storms will be possible overnight into Saturday morning as the storm system’s core approaches from the west. It will finally move by early on Saturday with flow slowly switching to the northwest and the thermometer turning down! In fact, the post-storm flow is trending colder!
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers and perhaps a thundershower. Lows in the 50s for most areas. Patchy fog possible.
Friday: Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with areas of rain moving through in the afternoon into the evening. Embedded thunderstorms are possible. Gusty southerly winds at times. Highs in the 60s to around 70ºF.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9AM Friday to 3AM Saturday.
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Saturday: Rounds of showers (and the potential for embedded thunderstorms) continue, then slowly taper off into the afternoon. Gusty southerly winds slowly turn to the northwest late in the day with cooler air filtering in. Highs in the upper 50s to 60s.
Extended: A few sprinkles may linger into Sunday morning, but winds slowly turning more northerly with usher in much dryer air, mixing out all remaining drops and eventually clouds. High will be cool across the area Sunday—50s-60s—then days will be warmer as the dryer air mass slowly warms through mid-week. Nighttime temperatures will drop, however! High pressure will break down a bit by Thanksgiving with a weak shortwave perhaps clipping us from the north. We’re watching for any precip chances.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 24th – 30th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
