Calm to Start, Rain Returns this Afternoon
Wet weather returns to the Central Coast on Wednesday as a disturbance rotating around the larger storm system to our west, pushes through the Monterey Bay Region. Isolated showers will be possible Wednesday morning as the air mass moistens. The actual wave mid-afternoon will have enough moisture to make up for the dryer air with light to moderate rain falling for most areas into the early evening. Southerly winds will increase and be strongest with the wave passage late in the day—mostly between 1PM and 9PM. We haven’t seen much wind out of the south since the spring, so it may be easier for debris to be blown around—debris normally sheltered from our more typical wind directions. The outer coast will be impacted the most, but some valley funneling will also be possible. Showers will then follow into Thursday in the marginally unstable air mass, which could produce a thunderstorm. This is all while the main low remains to our west. It will begin to move in on Friday with another shortwave rotating through.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early. Gusty south-southeasterly winds at times and highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Widespread rain arrives mid-afternoon from the southwest, though inland valleys and even the south side of the bay will experience some rain-shadowing.
***GALE WARNING***
…for Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California out to 10 nm, now until 3AM Thursday. And, coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos California out to 10 nm, now until 9PM Wednesday.
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.
* Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with continued scattered showers. Lows will be 2-5 degrees warmer, with upper 40s to mid 50s. Valleys a bit cooler in the 40s. Southerly winds calm, but will continue to be gusty at times.
Thursday: Showers linger overnight into Thursday morning then will slowly taper off, leaving partly cloudy skies. With sun peaking through at times, afternoon heating will create some instability which could generate additional PM showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Breezy south-southeasterly winds at times Slightly warmer with highs in the 60s to low 70s.
Extended: Instability will be higher Friday, so along with a wave of rain we may see embedded or even discrete thunderstorms. Brief heavier downpours will be possible, although no major flooding issues are expected. Gusty winds are also expected to return. Rain and wind will taper off into late Saturday. High pressure then builds in starting Sunday with offshore winds possible and much warmer, dryer conditions.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 22nd – 28th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
