Dry Mountain Winds
Cool weather will be the story as we head into the weekend and then our attention turns to “fire weather.”
The already cool air mass in place as we head into Friday will be reinforced by another cool, dry air mass on Saturday. Ahead of it, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out a few sprinkles on Friday. But, as this air mass moves in Saturday, gusty northeasterly offshore winds will develop. These winds will be felt mostly in the mountains but may occasionally mix down into the valleys. The air mass will also be very dry, so these conditions will combine to create elevated fire danger especially late Saturday into early Sunday. Luckily, while we’re still in our dry season, we’ve had a few weak systems bring some beneficial moisture to the region. This will help keep fire danger from being worse. As far as temperatures are concerned, expect chilly mornings and cool afternoons through the weekend. Building high pressure next week will warm up our afternoons, but the mornings will still be chilly!
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Scattered high clouds, otherwise clear. Cool, with coastal lows in the 40s to around 50ºF and upper 30s to 40s inland. Breezy northwesterly winds on the exposed coast.
Friday: Scattered high clouds with the chance for a few sprinkles. Cool, with coastal highs mainly in the low to mid 60s and 60s to low 70s inland. Breezy northwesterly winds at the coast becoming windy in the valleys later in the day.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with just a few high clouds. Slightly warmer, but still cool for this time of year. Expect coastal highs in the 60s to around 70ºF with mid 60s to mid 70s inland. Breezy northeasterly offshore winds in the hills with occasionally breezy conditions in the lower elevations and valleys.
*FIRE WEATHER WATCH*
…for the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Diablo Range (in Santa Clara County) from early Saturday morning until Sunday afternoon.
North-northeast winds are expected to develop early Saturday across the ridges. Dry, offshore winds will peak late Saturday into Sunday morning, which will result in elevated fire weather concerns. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible across ridges with locally higher gusts up to 50 mph across ridgetops.
*WIND: North-northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Highest ridgetops and peaks may see gusts up to 50 mph.
*RELATIVE HUMIDITY: Minimum relative humidity as low as 15 to 25 percent on Saturday and Sunday. Poor relative humidity recoveries overnight in the 25 to 45 percent range.
*The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.
Extended: Sunny to mostly sunny skies, cool mornings, and warming afternoons can be expected into early next week. It will likely be cold enough for frost in some inland valleys, however. We’re watching the potential for a system late next week, although it the moment, it doesn’t look all that wet.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 70ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 76ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 3rd – 9th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
