Hilary’s Last Hurrah

The low pressure center entrained with Hilary’s moisture will depart overnight with a dryer weather pattern setting in. There may be one final rounds of showers and maybe a thunderstorm over the Diablos Tuesday afternoon. For the rest of the week, we’ll be wedged between the massive ridge over the nation’s mid-section and a trough out over the Pacific. We’ll warm up a bit in the wake of the low Tuesday/Wednesday, then the strengthening trough will deepen our marine layer and cool us down Thursday/Friday. We may see some coastal drizzle during this period. There are some disagreements in the models on how the weekend and beyond progresses. The Euro, for example is building the ridge back west, but this is not happening in the GFS(American model). I’ve built a slight warm-up into the forecast for Sunday/Monday, however.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties including Monterey Bay from 9AM Monday until 9PM Monday

-Southerly winds of 15-30kt and gusts up to 40kt will make conditions hazardous for mariners.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.

Overnight: Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles possible. Decreasing clouds inland toward dawn with some low cloudcover developing near the coast. Patchy fog possible. Mild temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny with a few low clouds on the coast. Cumulus will build up over the higher terrain with a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm possible over the Diablos. Warmer, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s on the coast and upper 70s to low 90s inland. Breezy westerly onshore winds becoming windy in the valleys.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly sunny and warmer yet with plenty of 70s on the coast and 80s-90s inland. Breezy westerly onshore winds becoming windy in the valleys.
 
Extended: Cooling with increased low clouds Thu/Fri, then slowly warming through the weekend.

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 69ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 29^th – September 4^th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation. Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- Forecast: Moderate to strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free