WEATHER ALERT Sunday for Heavy Rain, and High Surf
WEATHER STORY
Moderate to heavy rain continues across the region overnight, tapering off from north to south toward dawn. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible into the early afternoon. Big swells are already arriving on the coast and will last into Tuesday. Areas near the water will be hazardous during the period. Calmer weather then takes over for the rest of the workweek.
… from the National Weather Service in Monterey (text in italics):
***FLASH FLOOD WARNING***
for the Dolan Fire and Willow Fire burn scars in Monterey County through 5AM.
* At 107 AM PDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain falling over the Dolan and Willow Burn Areas. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
Excessive rainfall over the burn area will result in debris flow moving through the Dolan and Willow Fire burn areas. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding in and around the Dolan and Willow Burn Area.
SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the Dolan and Willow Burn Areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...Lucia and Esalen Institute.
There is also a high likelihood of debris and/or rocks impacting highway one.
This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and ditches in the Dolan and Willow Burn Areas. Severe debris flows can
also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.
Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep terrain, especially in and around these areas.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
EXTENDED for Santa Cruz County through 5:15AM Monday
Moderate to locally heavy rain is impacting Santa Cruz county and this is expected to continue into the early morning hours. We are starting to get reports of minor flooding and minor mud slides. As rain continues, these impacts will continue to occur across the county.
At 1210 AM PDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated moderate rain. This is causing urban and small stream flooding. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Corralitos, Scotts Valley, Capitola, Live Oak, Felton, Soquel, Ben Lomond, Twin Lakes, Opal Cliffs, Aptos, Boulder Creek, Rio Del Mar, Eureka Canyon Road, Brown Valley Road, Freedom, Amesti, Interlaken and Lexington Hills.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos is likely. The heavy rains will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep terrain, especially in and around these areas.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest until 4AM
* National Weather Service Meteorologists are forecasting heavy rainfall over the 2020 burn areas as well as the 2021 Willow Fire, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Local emergency services are monitoring the situation. PLAN NOW so you will know what to do in an emergency. Keep informed by listening to local radio and television for statements and possible warnings. Follow the advice of public safety officials.
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties from 11PM Sunday until 11AM Tuesday.
- Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet, greatly increased coastal run up, strong rip currents and longshore currents, and increased risk of coastal run up and minor coastal flooding in low lying areas.
- Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
- Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Overnight: Rain & wind slowly taper off for most areas. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows mainly in the 50s.
Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible into the afternoon, then becoming partly cloudy and dryer late. Highs in the upper 50s to 60s for most areas.
Extended: A trailing wave may bring a few showers on Tuesday, otherwise dryer, slowly warming weather can be expected next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 79ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 31st – November 6th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
-Forecast into Winter: Weak La Niña
-Area drought status: “Extreme Drought” for the entire viewing area with the far southeastern corner of Monterey County and far eastern San Benito County considered “Exceptional Drought”
