A Taste of the Monsoon
Air Quality (as of 7PM)
GOOD for all reporting stations
WEATHER STORY
Monsoon moisture continues to stream in around the big high pressure ridge over the four corners and aided by a sub-tropical low sliding north up the West Coast. The first round of brought some high based showers to southern Monterey and San Benito Counties, but no accumulating precipitation was recorded. The second wave of moisture will arrive around dawn and will get a little extra energy from the low as moves up the coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into the early afternoon. Storms could have lightning & erratic winds, along with brief showers.
We’ll slip into a fairly tranquil pattern behind this monsoonal pulse which will likely last for the rest of the week. It will seem familiar to most with cooler, cloudier conditions on the coast and warm, sunny conditions inland.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
In effect until 5pm Monday for dry lightning for the following areas:
- Santa Lucia Mountains & Los Padres National Forest
- Gabilan Range & Cholame Hills in Monterey/San Benito Counties
- Diablo Range in Santa Clara/San Benito Counties
- Santa Cruz Mountains
- WIND...Given the potentially dry nature of thunderstorms gusty and erratic winds will be possible with developed storms.
- TIMING...Thunderstorm threat most likely Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon.
- LIGHTNING...Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon.
- IMPACTS...Given the dry fuels over the higher elevations, any cloud to ground lightning strikes have the potential of starting new wildfires.
Upper level moisture will increase over the region Sunday morning through Monday morning from the south. The upper level moisture will accompany upper level instability increasing chances for thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms will be a mix of dry and wet, but given how dry the fuels are any lightning strikes will be problematic. The threat for thunderstorms diminishes Monday afternoon as the moisture moves northward.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Overnight: Low clouds for the coast and nearby valleys. Mostly clear inland with increasing clouds by dawn. A chance for thunderstorms starting around dawn. Expect lows in the 50s for most areas.
Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms into the early afternoon. Storms may have lightning, erratic winds, and brief showers. Highs in the 60s to low 70s on the coast and 70s to around 103ºF inland. Onshore winds push into the valleys in the afternoon.
Tuesday: Low clouds linger on the coast with mostly sunny skies inland. Slightly cool on the coast with highs mainly in the 60s to around 70ºF. Seasonable to slightly warm inland with mainly 80s-90s. Onshore winds push into the valleys in the afternoon.
Extended: Not much change in the day to day forecast into next weekend. We’ll have the daily cycle of low clouds on the coast and afternoon winds for the inland valleys. Temperatures look to cool slightly across the board Thursday/Friday, then warm back up a touch this weekend.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 69ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 26th – August 1st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation*.
*Note: little to no precipitation usually falls this time of year.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Watch
-Area drought status: “Extreme Drought” for the entire viewing area with the far southeastern corner of Monterey County considered “Exceptional Drought”
