Potential Dry Lightning, Red Flag Warning for Sunday
Air Quality (as of 10AM)
GOOD for all reporting stations
WEATHER STORY
The monsoonal high to our southeast will strengthen as we head into Sunday, which will slowly warm our inland areas. We won’t see too much change on the coast, the low clouds will continue their daily cycle. Moisture will stream in around the high on Sunday with high clouds becoming apparent. There is a slight chance we could see some (mostly dry) showers and perhaps an isolated (mostly dry) thunderstorm late Sunday into Monday.
Sunday: Low clouds hug the coast as moisture/high clouds move in from the south. This monsoonal flow brings with it the potential for high-based thunderstorms which could produce dry lightning throughout the afternoon and into the early evening. Very little rain (if any) will reach the ground. Storms may also produce brief gusty, erratic winds. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 70s on the coast—warmest on the Santa Cruz side of the bay—and ranging from the low 70s to around upper 90s inland, depending on proximity to the coast.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
...In effect from 11am Sunday to 5pm Monday for dry lightning for higher elevations.
For the Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest, Mountains of San Benito County, interior Monterey County including Pinnacles National Park, effective 11 am Sunday.
For the North Bay Mountains, East Bay Hills, Diablo Range, and the Santa Cruz Mountains, effective 5pm Sunday.
- WIND...Given the potentially dry nature of thunderstorms gusty and erratic winds will be possible with developed storms.
- TIMING...Thunderstorm threat most likely Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon.
- LIGHTNING...Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon.
- IMPACTS...Given the dry fuels over the higher elevations, any cloud to ground lightning strikes have the potential of starting new wildfires.
Upper level moisture will increase over the region Sunday morning through Monday morning from the south. The upper level moisture will accompany upper level instability increasing chances for thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms will be a mix of dry and wet, but given how dry the fuels are any lightning strikes will be problematic. The threat for thunderstorms diminishes Monday afternoon as the moisture moves northward.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Overnight: Low clouds on the coast and nearby valleys. Expect lows in the 50s for most areas with a few 40s in the clearer southern valleys. Another round of dry thunderstorms possible by dawn.
Monday: Chance of (mostly dry) showers/thunderstorms through noon, then becoming partly cloudy.
Extended: Tuesday, the seasonable weather pattern returns, you can expect the daily cycle of low clouds, with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 69ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 85ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 23rd – 29th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation*.
*Note: little to no precipitation usually falls this time of year.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Summer: Neutral
-Area drought status: “Extreme Drought” for the entire viewing area with the far southeastern corner of Monterey County considered “Exceptional Drought” California Weather / Video / Weather / Weather Authority / Weather Team / Weather Video
