Strongest Storm of the Season
Weather Story: The strongest storm system of the season has arrived. This storm is packed with cold air and energy and has a good supply of moisture. Ahead of it, southerly winds will increase and rain will increase in the coastal mountains into the evening. A strong cold front will come accompanied by heavy rain and gusty winds early Wednesday morning. Rainfall rates will put pressure on burn scars leading to the possibility of debris flows. The main threat will press south later in the morning Wednesday, focusing more on Monterey County. The front will then likely stall along the Monterey/SLO County line. This repeated exposure could mean significant rainfall amounts for our coastal hills--especially the Santa Lucias. Those planning to travel Highway 1 down the Big Sur Coast Wednesday into Thursday should make alternate plans. Most of the viewing area will see an inch of rain plus, but totals could approach a foot in the Santa Lucias. Debris flows around burn scars will be a good possibility, so if you live on or near a scar, make sure you have a plan in place to stay safe and follow all evacuation orders. The front will finally eject southward on Thursday, but showers will continue to pile in behind it. Additional rainfall possible beyond Thursday as several, weaker systems take aim on the West Coast.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***FLASH FLOOD WARNING***
for the Dolan burn area in Southwestern Monterey County
* Until 930 AM PST Wednesday.
* At 138 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain falling over the Dolan Burn Area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
Excessive rainfall over the burn area will result in debris flow moving through the Dolan Fire burn area. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.
Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding in and around the Dolan Burn Area.
Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the Dolan Burn Area.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Highway 1, Lucia and the Esalen Institute.
This is a life threatening situation for people in or near the Dolan Fire burn area. Some drainage basins impacted include...Stony Creek...Nacimiento River...San Antonio River...Big Creek North Fork.
This is a life-threatening situation. If you observe movement of soils move to higher ground immediately.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the Santa Lucia Range/Los Padres National Forecast, Southern Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast until 1PM Wednesday
-South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected, locally up to 70 mph in southwest facing slopes and coastal areas.
Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
**Wind Advisory**
… for the San Benito County and the inland valleys and mountains of Monterey County until 1PM Wednesday.
-South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected, locally in excess of 60 mph in the ridges and peaks.
Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
***STORM WARNING***
… for the Monterey Bay, Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas & Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos through 9am Wednesday morning.
-South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 10 to 15 feet at 14 seconds possible.
Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate.
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the coastal mountains of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties and the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County through 4pm Thursday.
-A moderate atmospheric river will impact the region Tuesday through Thursday bringing prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain along with gusty south winds. The brunt of the storm is forecast to occur between Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
- High confidence that thresholds for debris flows will be met for the following 2020 burn scars: CZU, SCU, Carmel/River, and Dolan. For non-burn scar areas, there could be rapid ponding of water in urban areas, and low lying areas with poor drainage. We also cannot rule out slides or wash outs in areas of steep terrain.
If you live near or on a burn scar: make sure you are signed up for your county's reverse 911 or other alert system and have a "go bag" ready. Monitor the weather for forecast updates and heed local official orders.
Overnight: A strong cold front will move through overnight with a period of heavy rain and potentially damaging winds, especially for exposed coastal areas. Rainfall rates may cause hydrological issues for burn scars. Overnight lows in the 40s for most.
Wednesday: The cold front is likely to stall out across southern Monterey County throughout the day. Showers will continue to pile in at times farther north around the Monterey Bay. Heavy rain at times in the south. Blustery conditions. Highs in the 50s. Debris flows possible over burn scars, especially in the south.
Extended: Heavy lines of showers will continue on Thursday. Highs in the 50s. Showers taper off Friday morning with another weather system sliding by to our north Saturday with a few additional showers possible. Another, wetter system should arrive Monday into Tuesday.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 3rd – 9th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.
