High Wind & Fire Danger
Air Quality Report (As of 12PM)
All reporting stations are good to moderate.
Changes are coming to the weather this weekend! An area of low pressure, which has been part of a blocking pattern over the Pacific, will finally move through our area over the next couple of days. It is being drawn in by a deep and broad trough of low pressure over the Northern Rockies. The low moving by will keep temperatures cool through the weekend. As the larger trough to our east continues to dig southward, the weather pattern will amplify with a big ridge of high pressure to our west. We’ll be stuck right between these two features in northerly flow. At the surface, a frontal boundary reinforced by dense, cool, and very dry air will crash southward through the Sacramento Valley. It will find an outlet via the San Francisco/Monterey Bay areas with gusty winds expected as this dense air pours out into the ocean. The extreme dryness, coupled with gusty winds will lead to critical fire danger starting Sunday night and lasting through Monday. Under a dry air mass next week, high temperatures will warm up but lows will cool down.
Rest of Saturday: After morning clouds, becoming mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through and a few low clouds on the coast. Slightly cool, with coastal highs in the 60s and 60s to mid-70s inland. Breezy for inland valleys in the afternoon. Low clouds will thicken late.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy early with patchy drizzle possible on the east side of the bay. Mild, with lows in the 50s on the coast and 40s-50s inland.
Sunday: After morning clouds, breaking to mostly sunny late in the day as northerly winds increase over the hills. Slightly cool with coastal highs in the 60s and 60s to mid-70s inland. Gusty winds pick up over the hills late.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
… for the Northern Diablo Range from 11AM Sunday until 5AM Tuesday
… for Santa Cruz County and the Santa Clara Valley from 8PM Sunday until 11AM Monday
WIND: North to northeast winds 15-30mph with gusts possible between 50-70mph over the highest elevations. Winds will increase late Sunday afternoon, peaking Sunday night into Monday morning.
HUMIDITY: 5-15% with little recovery at night.
Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
**Wind Advisory**
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
… for Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties from 4PM Sunday through 11AM Monday.
Northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph below 1000 feet. Gusts to 70 mph above 1000 feet.
- Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
- In addition to fire weather concerns these winds will have the potential to bring down fire weakened trees and branches across the region. Any temporary structures such as tents and scaffolding will be compromised. This event has the the potential to be as strong or stronger as winds during the 2017 Wine Country Fires with widespread potential for damaging winds throughout the Bay Area Sunday night.
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.
Extended: Offshore winds will be gusty at times Monday before tapering off. Clear skies expected Monday/Tuesday with mild highs and chilly lows. Highs will warm up through mid-week while lows remain cool… mainly 30s-40s. Some cloudcover possible after mid-week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 69ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 31st – November 6th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties, Abnormally dry on the east shore of the bay into San Benito County. No drought classification for much of Monterey County outside of the Gabilan Range.
