Fire, Smoke, & Lightning
AIR QUALITY ALERT (PM2.5 AQI as of 1PM)
Carmel Valley 180 (Unhealthy)
Hollister 112 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups)
King City 86 (Moderate)
Monterey 102 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups)
San Lorenzo Valley 103 (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups)
Salinas 94 (Moderate)
Santa Cruz 155 (Unhealthy)
As wildfires continue to rage across the Central Coast, a new threat emerges: the potential for additional dry lightning and erratic winds. Air quality will remain unhealthy and skies shrouded in smoke for the next few days. Do what you can to limit time outdoors and any strenuous activities.
Currently, high pressure to our east is pumping up moisture into our area from Tropical Cyclone Genevieve. By Sunday, a deeper, more unstable plume of moisture will arrive in our area. It’s looking more likely that we’ll see the return of elevated, high-based thunderstorms to the region. As with the last round(s), not much rainfall is likely but lightning is possible. Unlike the last round, the overall air mass won’t be near as warm/dry in the mid to low levels, so fire danger will be lower. That threat should leave the area by Tuesday with more tranquil weather expected for the rest of next week.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the entire KION viewing area from 5 AM Sunday to 5 PM PDT Monday. The Fire Weather Watch is longer in effect.
Elevated moisture and instability from former Hurricane Genevieve will move over the region this weekend through early next week and bring the threat of elevated thunderstorms across much of Northern California. A low pressure system off the coast may enhance and strengthen these thunderstorms allowing some to develop frequent lighting strikes and gusty erratic outflow winds. These erratic gusty outflow winds can lead to potentially dangerous and unpredictable fire behavior on existing wildfires while additional lightning strikes may result in new wildfire starts.
Prevailing winds will be southwest, light in the morning and breezy to locally gusty in the afternoon and evenings. However, erratic gusty outflow winds of 30 to 65 mph may accompany stronger thunderstorms.
The strongest thunderstorms are anticipated to develop Sunday evening through Monday morning. Additional isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms are forecast to develop over land from early Sunday to late Monday. Weaker isolated storms are possible off the coast as early as Saturday. Dry thunderstorms may become wet as the event progresses.
Lightning will likely spark new fires across the region, including remote areas. Wildfires in remote regions may not become apparent until warmer and drier conditions allow them to grow. Erratic gusty outflow winds may result in dangerous and unpredictable fire behavior. Please report potential fires to local CALFIRE or SHERIFF offices.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now…or will shortly. A combination of strong winds…low relative humidity…and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and smoky with a chance of (mostly dry) thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Erratic winds, light rain, and lightning possible with storms. Seasonable, with coastal highs in the 60s-70s, 80s-90s inland. Breezy for the inland valleys in the afternoon and evening.
Overnight: Scattered high clouds with low cloudcover and fog possible along the coast. Heavy smoke. Lows in the 50s for most areas with low 60s for southern valleys and the higher elevations.
Monday: Partly cloudy and smoky with a lower, but non-zero chance of (mostly dry) thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Erratic winds, light rain, and lightning possible with storms. Seasonable, with coastal highs in the 60s-70s, 80s-90s inland. Breezy for the inland valleys in the afternoon and evening.
Extended: The weather is looking more tranquil for the next of the week with occasional low clouds near the coast and smoky sunshine elsewhere. We will see our normal daily cycle of onshore winds, however, so afternoons could get gusty which could lead to fire growth. Highs will remain mostly seasonable—perhaps a touch warm inland. -------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 30th – September 5th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Watch
